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ABC: Putin says the U.S. supplying high-precision weapons to Ukraine for strikes on Russian territory is "direct participation in this war" ... does that concern you?
BIDEN: "I've known him for over 40 years."
11:35 AM · Jun 6, 2024
Steve Guest @SteveGuest
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Joe Biden just said that he has known Vladimir Putin for "over 40 years."
Either Biden is lying or he is admitting he was in contact with a KGB agent since 1984 or Biden’s brain is so cooked that he doesn’t know what on earth he is talking about.
11:51 AM · Jun 6, 2024 //
Rascally > Min Headroom llme
15 hours ago
Weren't some of the classified documents he had in his garage and at the Penn Center from his time as a Senator 40 years ago? The time when Dem Senators were afraid Reagan was going to start something and were trying to bolster and help Russia...? //
jester6
18 hours ago edited
If you take what Biden said at face value, it would be bad, but if you look at this objectively, it's much worse.
I don't think anyone, including Putin, thinks Biden is making these decisions. He is a puppet of the Neocon Hawks in the Deep State (both Republican and Democrat) who want to keep pushing Russia. Some people call it the Blob.
That means the people calling the shots collectively (there probably is no one decision-maker) are inaccessible to their Russian counterparts. So we are dancing on the edge of war, and there is no means for diplomatic dialog.
If things deteriorate, we could find ourselves in a situation like the Cuban Missile Crisis, except with no way for Kennedy and Kruschev to talk.
Negotiations don't start from a position of maximalist demands unless you are able to enforce them. Even the alleged Putin confidants who talked to Reuters for the report admit that Putin is tired of the war and wants to move on.
Let me stop here for a moment and say that anyone who thinks five members of Putin's entourage talked to Reuters about Putin's personal position on peace talks without acting under orders from Putin to do so. Those people are a danger to themselves and to others. The fact that no one in the Kremlin has acknowledged this alleged cease-fire offer on the record tells you all you need to know about its seriousness.
This means that Russia is not only demanding to keep the territory it has overrun, but it is actually requiring Ukraine to relinquish more territory as a condition of negotiations. //
If we look at this offer as anything other than a propaganda ploy aimed at bolstering the spirits and imaginations of Putin's fan club in the West, we are probably idiots who deserve whatever comes next. //
The Russians are simply advancing a narrative ahead of the international peace conference Switzerland is hosting on June 15-16.
Peace is not the absence of conflict but the presence of justice. All the Russian proposal does, to the extent it is even a serious proposal, is reward Russia for criminal behavior, return control of Russian overseas assets to Moscow, remove war-related economic sanctions, and set the stage for another Russian invasion. Nothing in the Russian scheme is even vaguely just, and no sane government would consider it. Russia knows that and they don't want it considered, they want big social media accounts and some Republican Members of Congress and Senators to have talking points to advace Putin's agenda.
The bigger problem is the Biden Crime Family's close ties to the Chinese government, and because of those ties, Joe Biden is afraid of pushing the Chinese too hard. Calling them out for providing lethal aid to Russia could very well be a red line in Beijing's relationship with Joe, Jim, and Hunter. //
anon-aqgv Ed in North Texas
6 hours ago
Russia population: 144 million
Ukraine: 38 million
Which side do you think will run out of manpower first?
DaveM anon-aqgv
5 hours ago
1960:
US Population 173 Million
Vietnam Population 30 Million.
Which side do you think will run out of manpower first?
JSobieski anon-aqgv
5 hours ago edited
Population of American colonies in 1776: 2.5M
Population of Great Britain in 1776: 8M
Which side did YOU think ran out of manpower first?
JSobieski anon-aqgv
5 hours ago edited
Population of USSR in 1989: 286.72M
Poulation of Afganistan in 1989: 10.67M
Which side did YOU think ran out of manpower first?
JSobieski anon-aqgv
7 hours ago
Non-symmetrical demands for manpower, which shouldn't be too hard to understand.
Russia cannot apply 100% of its manpower to Ukraine, while Ukraine can and does apply 100% of its manpower to fighting Russia.
Russia has extended supply lines, while Ukraine does not.
Ukraine is fighting in its home territory, Russia is the invader.
These concepts are difficult to understand, but I get that some people just refuse to understand.
A great example of non-symmetrical warfare was 9/11. Fewer than 20 people with boxcutters shut down US airspace.
Dieter Schultz JSobieski
7 hours ago edited
These concepts are difficult to understand, but I get that some people just refuse to understand.
I keep recalling one of the most insightful comments I ever encountered on the web, namely: "And now we get to the crux of the matter, I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you."
If any of this sounds familiar, you need to think back to the Vietnam War and our policy of allowing the North Vietnamese Army to have "sanctuaries" in Cambodia, Laos, and North Vietnam. For most (maybe all) of that conflict, North Vietnamese Air Force fighters could not be attacked on the ground; they only became legal targets when airborne.
Though Ukraine is clearly able to use domestic weapons against targets in Russia, drones have their limitations. Because of US policy, Ukraine had to sit on its hands and wait for the Russians to cross the border rather than destroy units and equipment before they entered combat. I'm sure plausible arguments can be made that the White House and Pentagon are merely making recommendations, but there is no doubt that the Ukrainians are treating these recommendations as firm guidance, and the Russians are reacting accordingly. //
Since the one time Ukraine used US anti-aircraft missiles over Russian territory disjointed many noses in Washington, Ukraine has allowed Russia to launch glide bombs at Kharkiv and Ukrainian Army positions for the last five months with impunity. //
If the policy of the US is to bring this war to a conclusion, then the policy is an extremely stupid one. It allows Russia to strike Ukrainian population centers with impunity so long as the attack comes from Russian territory as recognized by the civilized world. Russia can mass troops and weapons on Ukraine's border at any point, and Ukraine is forbidden to attack them preemptively. They must let Russia strike first. If Biden's purpose is to drag the war out ad infinitum to maximize damage, slaughter, and political instability, then it makes sense. I'm not posing that alternative facetiously; as we saw during COVID, Biden and his appointees were willing to kill as many Americans as it took to impose policy preferences. There is no reason to think they hold Russian or Ukrainian lives in higher regard.
More disturbing is that we're seeing the return of Robert S. McNamara's Whiz Kids to policy making, only this time, we are using unqualified midwits and lackwits from the bowels of the Democratic foreign policy intelligentsia instead of legitimately smart people. They are trying to play cute "non-escalation" games that might be amusing in the faculty lounge after a few hits of some good Lebanese hash but which kill and cripple men, women, and children in Ukraine. Retreating to the establishment of sanctuaries where the Russians can train and stage operations is bizarre because we know that policy doesn't encourage negotiations; it encourages recalcitrance.
If we are serious about ending this war on terms acceptable to Ukraine and to our NATO allies, and that should be our only concern, then Russian forces and equipment must be put at risk inside Russian territory, and if it requires the use of American munitions to do that, then that's what we need to do.
In a fit of rage, Henry II said, "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?"
Four Norman knights—Reginald FitzUrse, Hugh de Morville, William de Tracy, and Richard le Breton—heard Henry's complaint and decided to act. They cornered Becket in Canterbury Cathedral and hacked him to death.
No one accuses Henry II of ordering the death of Thomas à Becket, but by the same token, no one doubts that the knights who did the killing were acting according to Henry's wishes.
So what would inspire the IC to burn more of its already shredded and feces-stained credibility to promote a story that is, at worst, an outright lie and, at best, a disingenuous parsing of the word "order?"
My guess would be that Jake Sullivan has hatched some sort of midwit plan that will only work if Putin's complicity in Navalny's murder can be whitewashed into a misunderstanding. The erasure of the murder would allow Biden and Putin to meet face-to-face. By determining that rogue actors killed Navalny without official sanction, it could, conceivably, permit the removal of some of the sanctions imposed after Navalny's death. The IC, as always, stands ready to do whatever it takes to please its Democrat masters, national security, and the Constitution be damned. //
Laocoön of Troy Dieter Schultz
2 hours ago edited
Back when Val Plame was doin' glamour shots for Vanity Fair as the CIA Analyst You'd Love to...Fly with..I took a look at the CIA's nuclear counter proliferation efforts and their track record. Val was a counterproliferation alumnus.
This office has missed every atomic or thermonuclear test except ours and the UK's. Every one. They got ours because they were notified when the test was gonna happen. They got the UK one right because they were invited to observe. Everybody else's slipped it by them. The level of epic fail in this office is nearly perfect.
Why are we still paying for the epic fail?
Russia arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov Tuesday on suspicion of large-scale bribery. Ivanov is one of 12 deputies reporting to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Ivanov, who was responsible for overseeing construction, property management, housing, and medical support for the military, was accused of running a "criminal conspiracy" in awarding military construction contracts that enriched him personally. //
According to Osechkin's sources, in 2021 Shoigu made Military Intelligence under the command of the General Staff fabricate countless reports for Putin which painted an apocalyptic picture: in the coming months NATO ground forces would enter Ukraine to de-occupy Donbas.
The false reports to Putin about NATO to instigate a crisis and a war to halt the investigation into their corruption worked, facilitating the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Shoigu and his mafia urgently needed this war.
Shoigu knows Putin well, and he was convinced Putin would not change horses midstream if they started a war against Ukraine. Not only did Shoigu manage to get rid of the 2021 corruption investigation against them by manipulating Putin, his MoD budget skyrocketed with the war.
Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution Wednesday that would have reaffirmed a nearly 50-year-old ban on placing weapons of mass destruction into orbit, two months after reports Russia has plans to do just that.
Carey J Texas Vol Fan
12 hours ago
It will take Russia YEARS to rebuild what it has already lost, in Ukraine. Ukraine is wrecking the Russian Army for us, with our third-rate hand-me-down crap, and giving us an excuse to modernize our stuff. It's the best deal since the Dutch bought Manhattan Island for twenty-odd dollars worth of glass beads. //
Min Headroom llme Carey J
7 hours ago
Best deal: it certainly is, although Seward’s Folly was a pretty good deal too.
An unstated, but possibly beneficial side affect is that this spectacle might give Chairman Xi a little pause as well, although self deception might cause him to miss the lesson. //
Ready2Squeeze Min Headroom llme
an hour ago
Louisiana purchase should rate in there as well! //
Bryon Grosz
5 hours ago
Not for them, for us.
Opposing Russian aggression is in our interest just as opposing Chinese aggression or Iranian aggression. In a world full of evil, there are no good options, but you should still choose the least bad option.
Why us? Who else? It's us or no one. Some will follow our lead, but there is no one else capable and willing to lead in this regard.
The most likely system used here was the S-200, which first appeared in 1967 and was steadily upgraded over the years. Ukraine retired its S-200 batteries in 2013 but reactivated them in 2022. The system was designed to engage SR-71 reconnaissance aircraft and was nuclear-capable. //
streiff Walter Sobchak‘s doppelgänger
7 hours ago
one of the advances this war has brought about is that older SAMs are networked to state-of-the-art radar. The Patriot's radar can control S-300 and S-400 in addition to Patriot.
The veracity of their statements is of little import, mainly because their commentary is entirely detached from reality. What is clear is that the vote on the Ukraine aid package shook Kremlin insiders. That is what we should pay attention to for two reasons. First, the aid package is large enough that they are panicked, and second, they obviously thought the fix was in. The second item is something we should ponder. Are they getting their political intelligence from alt-right US social media accounts, or do they own someone who is telling them that?
There's just one catch... //
This would offer a competitive alternative to the Falcon 9—if it existed.
However, it does not. Back in 2020, Russian officials said Amur would debut in 2026. Recently, however, Borisov indicated that its debut would slip to 2028 or 2029. Anyone who follows the launch industry will well know what that means. Amur hardware does not exist, and all plans regarding its development are notional. It may well never exist.
Even assuming a debut by something like 2030, recall that it took SpaceX more than five years after the debut of the Falcon 9 to land a first stage rocket successfully. It took another five years for the company, which is known for moving fast, to begin reusing first stages frequently. Finally, it took 14 years for the first Falcon 9 rocket to be flown 20 times. So if Russia debuts the Amur vehicle in the next five years, we might, under the best of circumstances, expect Roscosmos to fly a stage 20 times by the mid-2040s. //
Shortly after the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Russian government approved the development of the Angara rocket in 1992. The first test flight did not happen until 2014, and as of earlier this month, it was still conducting test flights rather than carrying meaningful payloads into orbit.
So if it took Roscosmos three decades to design, build, and test the Angara rocket, which is fairly conventional, how long might it take to develop the more innovative Amur vehicle with a capacity for vertical landings and reuse? //
PatientZero Ars Centurion
7y
200
cervier said:
You mean the Soviet space program which benefited from talented people from OUTSIDE russia, like Ukraine?
Corrected, and you are very correct. Even Korolev (the only reason why the Soviet Union had a successful space program) was Ukrainian.
Douglas Proudfoot
5 hours ago
Part of any Russian decision to use nuclear weapons has to be an evaluation of how likely it is that the weapons will actually work as designed, and how Russian soldiers will react.
The reliability of Russian military equipment and ammunition in Ukraine has been spotty at best. At least 10% of conventional Russian missiles misfire or fall short. Firing the nuclear versions of these weapons is not an attractive option. They could detonate in Russia or on Russian held Ukrainian territory.
The dud rate is also a problem. If Putin uses a nuke, and it fails to detonate, Putin gets huge embarrassment. The corruption rampant in the Russian military makes this outcome possible, even probable. Nuclear weapons require careful component storage and maintenance. They’re fragile. The overall Russian record on Russian military storage and maintenance is really poor. The weapons have to be assembled and readied by technical people who know what they’re doing.
If the Ukrainians pick up a Russian dud nuke, nothing will stop them from rebuilding it and using it on Belgorod, Russia. Ukraine most certainly has the knowledge to do it.
Few of the Russian troops in Ukraine have been issued any protection equipment for nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons. Some barely have complete uniforms and are using bolt action rifles designed for World War I. Hardly any have been trained for NBC. They are in no condition to suvive the use of NBC on the battlefield. They would most likely flee in panic from any use of NBC.
My guess is that beyond the usual risk considerations of nuclear retaliation, Putin has to worry, a lot, about the reliability of his nuclear weapons and soldiers. Combining all these risks, in my opinion, increases the uncertainty to the point that no rational Russian Commander in Chief would order a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Even if Putin isn’t completely rational, his subordinates definitely are. They could react to an order to use nukes by overthrowing Putin. //
And, very importantly, the gloves would come off; no more restrictions by US/NATO on what Ukraine can target and the West would supply more and better.
And don't forget the China angle. There is NO way China permits Putin to do this. A tac nuke strike by Putin would leave him out to dry b/c China's not stupid; China would almost certainly decouple from Russia. No way China allows its Long Game to be affected by Putin's stupidity.
That Biden would prop up Russia and throw Israel under the bus is just about as shocking as George H. W. Bush trying to keep the Soviet Union from imploding. These decisions are made by small men with inflated egos who are desperately afraid to do what is right because the new security paradigm will render their experience useless.
What isn't important here is that any of what Putin says is plausible, but, rather, that he says it. In the words of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn:
“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.” //
A Ukrainian attack on a soft target like a concert, while not on the scale of the Russian attack on a theater in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 16, 2022, that killed up to 600 civilians, could possibly create the national outrage needed to support increased mobilization.
Given the laser-like focus of the Russian government on blaming Ukraine, you can't help but recall the apartment block bombings in 1999 in Russia that killed over 300 and injured nearly 1,000. Those attacks were immediately blamed on Chechen guerillas, but it became clear that the FSB had carried out the bombings to create casus belli for the Second Chechen War.
To the extent this propaganda campaign is intended for the West, it will be used to justify increased attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine.
Macron was asked about the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine, which he publicly raised last month in comments that prompted pushback from other European leaders. "We're not in that situation today," he said, but added that "all these options are possible."
Macron said that responsibility for prompting such a move would lie with Moscow – "It wouldn't be us – and said France would not lead an offensive into Ukraine. But he also said, "Today, to have peace in Ukraine, we must not be weak."
He said that the continent's security was "at stake" in the conflict which he said "is existential for our Europe and for France." He added that "if the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war."
He said there had been "too many limits in our vocabulary" since the Russian invasion in February 2022. "Two years ago we said we would never send tanks. We did. Two years ago, we said we would never send medium-range missiles. We did," he said. "Those who say 'let's not support Ukraine' do not make the choice of peace, they make the choice of defeat," he added. //
Inadvertently, Putin admitted what I and others have said all along. The only way to bring Putin to the negotiating table is to dangle the specter of a military defeat in front of him. This bullsh** of worrying about "off ramps" and "escalation" when Putin is clearly not interested in the first and unable to credibly do the second has increased the length of this war and its destruction. While Putin bears all the responsibility for the start of this war, Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have much to answer for in how it has been conducted.
We constantly hear from pro-Russian voices on social media (like David Sacks) and in Congress (looking at you, JD Vance) that all that is needed to stop this war is for negotiations to begin on how much of Ukraine has to be surrendered to make Putin feel good about himself. We have the answer. There is no limit on the amount of territory that Russia declares to be its own.
In this speech by Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council, he flat out says that Ukraine does not exist. //
As Lithuania's minister of foreign affairs noted:
Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 @GLandsbergis
·
Some people say NATO is no longer necessary while the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia stands in front of a huge map of the planned imperial conquest of Eastern Europe 🤷🏼♂️
1:03 PM · Mar 4, 2024 //
Again, a war that was conceived to dismember Ukraine and reduce the rump state to a Muscovite satrapy has expanded NATO and anchored Ukraine more firmly to the West than anything possible without the war.
The Russian propaganda outlet RT.com released a transcript Friday of senior German military officers discussing the deployment of the German Taurus stealth cruise missile to Ukraine.
Luftwaffe commander Ingo Gerhartz led the 38-minute call that took place on February 19 involved. Other participants were the German Air Force Head of the Operations and Training Section, Frank Graefe, a Luftwaffe Space Command Air Operations Center staff member, Stefan Fenske, and another staff from the center identified only by the surname Frostedte. The call was intercepted because General Gaefe, who was attending the biennial Singapore Airshow (sounds a lot like "hiking the Appalachian Trail"), participated in the discussion using an unsecured hotel telephone line. //
Divulging sensitive operational details in a call recorded by the SVR has caused a lot of problems for Scholz and Germany.
Germany's lack of seriousness in manning its armed forces and now in the way that it handles highly classified details is showing more and more EU nations that it can't look to Germany for competent leadership. The call, which apparently revealed Scholz's thinking on the subject of the Taurus missile that he hadn't shared with allies, foreign or domestic, has given his already flaccid credibility a body blow. This has caused France's Emanuel Macron to make a stab at wresting the leadership of the EU and European NATO from Germany. The tenor of the leaked conversation was one of lukewarm enthusiasm for assisting Ukraine with a strong shot of defeatism.
The long-term impact of the leaked conversation remains unclear. While it's unlikely to lead to an immediate shift in German policy, it has undoubtedly raised the stakes in the ongoing debate about military aid to Ukraine. The damage to diplomatic trust is very real, and the increased pressure from allies creates a complex situation for Scholz. Scholz's approval rate is roughly half that of Joe Biden (17%), and his coalition allies see self-preservation in jumping ship. However, Germany's constitution virtually guarantees that Scholz's government will continue to move zombie-like for the next two years when Germany's power and influence are sorely needed.
What is crystal clear is that this intelligence coup by the SVR has had a significant impact in dividing the pro-Ukraine coalition.
Soviet dissident Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn described the relationship between the citizens of the USSR and the government in this way.
We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country. //
As I've said many times, a stalemate tends to help Putin because his only strategy is to convince the West to accept defeat in Ukraine. It doesn't matter how many men Russia has available for conscription; Russia's ability to arm, train, and supply troops is limited, as is its ability to get them to the right place on the front at the right time with the right equipment. Ukraine's strategy is to continue to convince the West that it has the will to win. When you throw in Zelensky's relief of a popular commander-in-chief, you have a political imperative to chalk up a win somewhere.
On the whole, I don't think anyone predicted two years ago that the war would enter into a third year. I think most believed that Zelensky and his government would catch the first thing smoking (yes, Walsh, I owe you a beer for copyright infringement) for Zurich, and the Russians would easily carve up the country. I know I did. Since then, we've learned a lot. The big takeaway is that John McCain was right. Russia is a gas station with nukes. Its military is crap, and the command structure utterly corrupt. We've seen drones become a dominant weapon, even to the extent of driving Russia's Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol. We've seen that Western weapons and command and control methods are essential to winning battles. We've even seen that it takes a plausible threat to motivate Western countries to up their defense spending, not bullying and bluster. //
RoINTEL
@RoINTEL
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The German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, warned, on Saturday, in a speech held at the Security Conference in Munich, that European countries and the #NATO alliance must prepare for a decades-long conflict with #Russia.
9:45 PM · Feb 17, 2024 //
The Russians are again claiming the aircraft were lost to friendly fire because Russian stupidity is a more palatable explanation than Ukrainian prowess.
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn dedicated his book about the end state of communism ‘to all those who did not live to tell it.’ //
My parents emigrated from the Soviet Union. From what they told me, I developed a deep reluctance to being frog-marched to Kolyma courtesy of unilateral disarmament peaceniks, who are nowadays called “woke” with alternate grievances but the same collectivist Borg mentality. //
In part I’s fourth chapter, Solzhenitsyn encourages humility about human vulnerability to evil. “If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?” //
In part VII’s third chapter, Solzhenitsyn excoriates apologists for Soviet misrule: “All you freedom-loving ‘left-wing’ thinkers in the West! … As far as you are concerned, this whole book of mine is a waste of effort. You may suddenly understand it all someday — but only when you yourselves hear ‘hands behind your backs there!’ and step ashore on our Archipelago.” He knew his disclosures would meet that era’s version of cancel culture. //
The will to dominate runs deep in the human psyche. Archipelago reminds us such despotic cruelty became commonplace in living memory with few held accountable.
Moreover, such atrocities continue today behind barbed wire in western China, North Korea, and elsewhere on the globe. Solzhenitsyn warns us all of the consequences should resistance to totalitarianism fail.