Deputy Defense Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, speaking at the daily Pentagon press briefing, identified the missile as " an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile" based on an existing ICBM design. She also confirmed that Russia had alerted the Pentagon to the launch in accordance with nuclear risk reduction protocols. //

The fact that this was not an ICBM indicates that the strike was not Putin signaling an increase in escalation. Russia has used missiles in the same class since the early days of the war, particularly the Iskander IRBM. //

Russia's use of the existing nuclear risk reduction channels to warn the US of the launch indicates that Putin is concerned about how the United States and NATO perceive his actions. //

Now that we know what the missile was, we still aren't sure what we saw in the video.

The video shows the same attack twice, probably to make it longer. The first problem is that there are no explosions at impact. A MIRV has a lot of kinetic energy; what is missing from the video is evidence of chemical energy. There seem to be about 17 individual warheads. If we use the Iskander as a proxy, this would reduce the throw-weight of each to about 100 pounds.

Compare this video with that of US MIRV tests at Kwajalein Atoll.
https://youtu.be/3ZM3y5qpMgY
https://youtu.be/Eh96NdcgE2Y

The lack of damage and casualties reported from Dnipro also hints that the warheads were purely kinetic, which begs the question of their guidance system.