The agriculture committee (AGRI) in the most recent European Parliament was known for leaning conservative, especially compared to the environment committee (ENVI), with the two clashing over the EU's green farming agenda, the Farm to Fork strategy. AGRI was also strongly pro-farmer — due in large part to the number of farmers who served on it.

Next month’s European election could return a more right-wing assembly to oversee the EU’s €387 billion farm budget, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. At the same time, Green Party lawmakers — the most vocal supporters of the Green Deal — could lose up to a third of their seats, while the number of Socialist and Liberal MEPs could also shrink.

What does this mean for European agriculture?

In practice this means there’s unlikely to be a viable coalition of the center-left, liberal, Green and left that can secure deals such as the nature restorationlaw that sparked controversy in this past term. Meanwhile, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) will find it easier to build majorities with groups further to the right.

This might make less of a difference in AGRI as groups from the far right to the center left often vote together. However, a further rightward shift will confirm an existing trend: Out with the Green Deal, and in with the “Farm Deal.”