Douglas Proudfoot
5 hours ago
Part of any Russian decision to use nuclear weapons has to be an evaluation of how likely it is that the weapons will actually work as designed, and how Russian soldiers will react.
The reliability of Russian military equipment and ammunition in Ukraine has been spotty at best. At least 10% of conventional Russian missiles misfire or fall short. Firing the nuclear versions of these weapons is not an attractive option. They could detonate in Russia or on Russian held Ukrainian territory.
The dud rate is also a problem. If Putin uses a nuke, and it fails to detonate, Putin gets huge embarrassment. The corruption rampant in the Russian military makes this outcome possible, even probable. Nuclear weapons require careful component storage and maintenance. They’re fragile. The overall Russian record on Russian military storage and maintenance is really poor. The weapons have to be assembled and readied by technical people who know what they’re doing.
If the Ukrainians pick up a Russian dud nuke, nothing will stop them from rebuilding it and using it on Belgorod, Russia. Ukraine most certainly has the knowledge to do it.
Few of the Russian troops in Ukraine have been issued any protection equipment for nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons. Some barely have complete uniforms and are using bolt action rifles designed for World War I. Hardly any have been trained for NBC. They are in no condition to suvive the use of NBC on the battlefield. They would most likely flee in panic from any use of NBC.
My guess is that beyond the usual risk considerations of nuclear retaliation, Putin has to worry, a lot, about the reliability of his nuclear weapons and soldiers. Combining all these risks, in my opinion, increases the uncertainty to the point that no rational Russian Commander in Chief would order a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Even if Putin isn’t completely rational, his subordinates definitely are. They could react to an order to use nukes by overthrowing Putin. //
And, very importantly, the gloves would come off; no more restrictions by US/NATO on what Ukraine can target and the West would supply more and better.
And don't forget the China angle. There is NO way China permits Putin to do this. A tac nuke strike by Putin would leave him out to dry b/c China's not stupid; China would almost certainly decouple from Russia. No way China allows its Long Game to be affected by Putin's stupidity.
