You only go to war for two reasons. Either you know you're going to win, or you know that you're going to lose if you don't. //

it is very clear that Hamas has won a stunning strategic victory and reset a political environment in which it had been marginalized. This is not without a historical analog. //

The Saudis seem to be looking for an exit from plans to normalize relations with Israel by suddenly demanding a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. This demand effectively kills the Abraham Accords unless the Saudis eventually walk it back. //

I have no doubt that Israel will root Hamas out of Gaza. But I do have doubts about what it means for Israel.

The Hamas narrative will be that it, alone had the courage to attack Israel when most thought the Palestinian cause was lost. It was the organization that moved Palestinian statehood back to the front burner of international issues. They will claim that they, not Mahmoud Abbas' flaccid Palestinian Authority, have earned the right to govern all Palestinian territories. We know from past experience that the Palestinians will generate a flood of martyrs and heroism from this to inspire and radicalize Palestinians outside Gaza.

The media that shamelessly ran to trumpet a hospital bombing that never happened will package each story of a dead Gazan into a major tragedy while the dead of October 7 and 8 will be shoved aside. //

unless Israel is very careful, it will emerge from this war with the Palestinian Authority run by Hamas-like forces, in a very weak position to resist "land-for-peace" demands from the West, and with the diplomatic relationships in the Arab world made possible by the Abraham Accords in rags.