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Hurricane forecasters are bewitched, bothered, and bewildered. The Atlantic hurricane season was supposed to be epic. Instead, it's turned into a real dud.
Huge storms wreaking havoc on coastlines from Aruba to Long Island were supposed to line up in the Eastern Atlantic in June and hit us one at a time until late September. The damage was going to be historic and the TV coverage was going to give climate change fanatics plenty of air time to vent that "this is just a foretaste" of what's to come.
But something puzzling occurred on the way to hurricane Armageddon: not much has happened. The Atlantic Ocean has seen five named storms: two tropical storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane this season. //
There's a lesson to be learned from the errors in hurricane forecasting. While we know a lot about the weather and how hurricanes form, what we don't know far exceeds our stored knowledge of how complex, chaotic systems behave to create deadly storms or a bright, sunny day.
It's a lesson that will go unlearned by many who could use that knowledge to realistically predict climate change.