One: The next Nobel Peace Prize go to Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, for brokering the U.S.-Iranian ceasefire.
Naturally: The Nobel Committee HATES President Donald Trump. Even if he cured cancer, AIDS, SIDS, and male pattern baldness, there’s no way in hell the Nobel Committee will give Trump its seal of approval. //
Two: This ceasefire will be broken repeatedly. Get used to it.
Famously, World War I ended on the 11th day of the 11th month at 11:00 a.m. in 1918.
Only it really didn’t: Even after the armistice, the fighting continued.
Ceasefires are seldom neat and tidy. Either deliberately or accidentally, they’re almost always violated by at least one side.
The Iran War will follow this pattern.
Iran’s #1 objective — by far — is to maintain control of its country. Part of the reason why its military performed so poorly is that it wasn’t really designed to battle America or Israel directly, but to keep its boot atop the Iranian people. //
Three: The “fee” on ships in the Strait of Hormuz is real and here to stay — because President Trump believes that it’ll benefit America.
Does Iran have the power to arbitrarily assign a seven-figure “fee” on ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz? Over the short-term, yes; over the long-term, no. It’s a violation of international law.
Unless the United States allows it. //
It’ll increase the operational cost on everyone else, making American goods cheaper by comparison, benefiting American companies.
Does it violate international law? Absolutely. Is international law enforceable? Probably not.
To keep our Gulf allies happy, we’ll need waivers (or profit-sharing) for Middle East nations that were hit with Iranian missiles. That’ll give ‘em the funds to rebuild, too. //
Four: The NATO alliance has been fatally wounded and is unlikely to survive.
It might limp on for several more years as a zombie org, but there are too many cracks in its foundation — because it’s now painfully obvious that U.S. and European interests no longer align.
For 100 years, we’ve protected Europe with American blood and treasure. We fought two World Wars on the continent, rebuilt it with the Marshall Plan, and then provided an 80-year security blanket to protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union. //
Europe is wealthy enough to defend itself. Besides, NATO didn’t exactly bend over backward to help us against Iran.
The opposite is true: NATO nations went out of their way to endanger U.S. lives by denying us access to shared military bases and/or their airspace.
That was their decision. And decisions have consequences.
Chief among them: Americans no longer believe that NATO makes us safer, freer, or more prosperous.
Never Trumper David Frum wrote a blistering op-ed on April 8 for The Atlantic, where he confused Richard Nixon’s madman theory with Dwight Eisenhower’s brinkmanship diplomacy. //
The truth is, NATO hasn’t been relevant in over a generation. Even The Times forgot what it stood for! //
Five: Operation Epic Fury also marks the end of the Israeli-U.S. military alliance.
Too much antisemitism. Too much anti-Zionism in the national ether. This means that there are too many political headwinds for the U.S.-Israeli alliance to survive: It’s no longer politically viable.
And that was before the Iran War!
The Democratic Party was already stridently anti-Israel, blasting it as a genocidal, apartheid state. After Israel participated in President Trump’s “illegal war” against Iran, the Dems' hatred has reached a crescendo. //
In all of American history, we’ve never treated a wartime ally this poorly.
It’s not fair, but the world doesn’t run on fairness. It runs on cause-and-effect, and the unfortunate truth is, virtually every PR trendline is heading in an anti-Israel direction. This means that Israel better prepare for a post-U.S. reality, because its future won’t be tied to ours anymore.
The Republican Party isn’t an anti-Israel party yet. But if these trendlines continue, it’s inevitable. //
RubyCupcake
2 hours ago edited
If you want accurate prophecy about what's to come read the Bible - specifically Daniel, Zechariah, Ezekiel, Revelation rather than Nostradamus. The day the US breaks their alliance with Israel is the day it no longer exists. The only reason we've survived God's wrath this long is because of us supporting Israel and the large percentage of Christians living here. //
FeynBohrStein Oldman77
an hour ago
That's advice, not a prediction.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"—a sentiment often attributed to Yogi Berra or Niels Bohr
