Some argue that drones reduce costs by the very virtue of being “unmanned.” But the pilot isn’t the main reason an F-35 is expensive.

Manned fifth-generation fighter jets are expensive because they need powerful engines to travel long distances, complicated electronics systems for detection and targeting, state-of-the-art composite materials and design to ensure stealth, and large frames to carry sufficient ordnance to complete the mission. A drone capable of doing what an F-35 can do would cost just as much, as it would have to do all the same things—and it would still need to be operated or commanded remotely by a human pilot.

Nor do drone swarms—in which large numbers of small disposable drones with single, relatively small payloads attack a base or a ship—clearly eliminate the need for warships or jets. These swarms are both a cause for concern and an offensive capability to be studied. However, it’s far from clear that they would be more effective than precision-guided munitions in, say, sinking ships during an attempted amphibious invasion, especially given limited payload and range.

Moreover, every major military is working to develop countermeasures against individual drones and swarms. These militaries are observing drones in action in Ukraine and using those observations to develop systems to defend ships and bases.

Drones cannot yet automate the many functions performed by manned warships—from frigates to destroyers to aircraft carriers—which play a vital role by conducting strikes with large numbers of missiles or aircraft, projecting concentrated firepower, and displaying the flag in foreign ports (which reassures partners and allies).

The Chinese certainly believe such vessels are still needed. Indeed, they’re currently engaged in a massive military buildup of aircraft carriers and fifth-generation fighter aircraft. //

While drones and autonomous systems have shown that they have an important and (almost certainly) increasing role to play in modern warfare, that role remains one of complementing existing systems, rather than replacing them.