But before the sea-going phase of the exercise commenced on January 13, the South African government requested that the Iranians withdraw their active participation from the exercise and become observers instead, a request to which the Iranian acceded.

The South African move was prompted by the realization at this late stage, that diplomatically it did not look good to be aligned with an Iranian regime which by some estimates has now killed 12,000 of its own citizens in anti-government riots. The South Africans also realized that its highly favorable trade position under the African Growth and Opportunity Act was in jeopardy, with the Act is coming before the U.S. House of Representatives this week for its scheduled three-year renewal.

These dangers were already apparent back in September, when The Maritime Executive noted that South African Chief of Staff General Rudzani Maphwanya had visited Tehran to issue an invitation to the exercise, a visit not apparently approved beforehand by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. President Ramaphosa objected to the visit, but did not fire the General for his freelancing in the political arena. Political opponents of the President said at the time that his response was weak, exceedingly so as events have turned out.