High prices are caused by a bottleneck at the refinery level and is not due to supply. Here are a few short-term solutions. //
Believe it or not, today the issue is not a lack of crude. There is plenty of that. Instead, the issue centers on a relative lack of refining capability due to a series of concurrent, unfortunate events. //
This issue has been a long time in the making. Since 2020, 11 domestic refineries have closed or been “repurposed to renewables,” representing a loss of production of about 900,000 barrels a day. Remaining refineries have limited capacity to pick up the slack, so if another is lost, it is difficult to mitigate the price damage that results.
It doesn’t help that the last U.S. refinery with significant downstream unit capacity was built in 1977. //
Right now, there are a few “idle” refineries (New Jersey and Nevada) that if engaged would combine to produce about 25,000 barrels a day. It would be relatively easy and quick to put them back into operation.
There are also four U.S. refineries that are listed as closed, but could reopen if business owners and regulators worked together (Benicia, Los Angeles, Houston, and Belle Chasse). They could produce around 750,000 barrels a day. These actions would mitigate a significant portion of the shortfall. At this point, every gallon is valuable.