We don't know why an announcement of a border change with Lithuania and Finland appeared on the Defense Ministry website with a press release in TASS, but we can rest assured it was, and is, very real. Neither do we know why Russia changed the boundary markers in the Narva River without consultation. These actions are setting the groundwork to gauge a NATO reaction to Russia seizing territory in Finland and the Baltic States. If NATO responds cautiously with Jake Sullivan crapping his drawers over Putin's moods, the next step will be "little green men," followed by Russian troops stepping in to defend Russian minorities in Latvia, Estonia, and on Svalbard Archipelago in Norway.

As I've said many times, you have to pay attention to what your enemies are telling you. Putin has repeatedly said that he does not accept the borders created by the dissolution of the Evil Empire or the end of the Romanov dynasty, for that matter. You don't just wake up one morning and pretend that international borders can be changed at a whim. Putin could conceivably think of a minor land grab against Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Finland as an act that could fracture NATO and not bring on a larger conflict. That's how he decided to invade Ukraine.