Cthel Ars Praefectus
6y
11,052
Subscriptor
odikweos said:
Wow. Not even one commenter mentioned the possibility of Chinese competition.

The real story here is exactly when cheap Chinese competition completely erodes the global demand for American launch. It's happened in industry after industry, and the state-owned "company" that handles the matter for PRC just succeeded at its first retrieval last month.

And no one apparently even has this on their radar.
That's because the US outlawed launching anything containing a single US-made component (including software) on a Chinese launch vehicle.
https://spacenews.com/u-s-itar-satellite-export-regimes-effects-still-strong-in-europe/

Massive fines tend to make the business model for launching on a Chinese launch vehicle unviable. //

Mdoug1974 Smack-Fu Master, in training
1y
18
The one and only reason SpaceX holds a monopoly as Gwynne Shotwell has stated many manby times is that all the other launch service providers have failed to provide any competition.

SpaceX cannot be blamed for its competitors failures to bring rockets to market in sufficient numbers to make a challenge.
Shotwell has in so many interviews stated that SpaceX welcoms competition because it will force them to work harder, better and smarter.
Nobody has been even able to start being competion yet. and by the time they do starship will be flying, and maybe Falcon 9 will be slowing down.

SpaceX have to fly F9 until the ISS is shutdown as they are contracted to do so, and starship willnever be cleared to ISS unless somebody(Boeing) re-calculates all the stress and mechanical loading of attaching a fully finished Starship to the ISS.