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SpaceX has unlocked an impressive achievement – 400 launches of its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket.
The launch on November 27 at 0441 UTC was to deploy another batch of 24 Starlink satellites into orbit. The Falcon 9 took off from LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center, and the booster landed successfully on SpaceX's A Shortfall of Gravitas droneship, marking the 375th booster landing. //
117 of the 400 Falcon 9 launches were conducted in 2024 alone, and it is likely the company could achieve 136 total launches this year if things go according to plan. //
Male bovine excrement.
...it's difficult not to connect the company's breathtaking launch pace and acceleration with the emergence of some quality issues...
A 0.495% (99.505% success) chance of loss of cargo is phenomenal—Soyuz has launched 1800 times, and has a ~5% chance of failure. The recent incidents aren't quality issues. Space is hard. The fact that SpaceX's teams have achieved this reliability is a testament to their gold-standard quality control practices.
Re: Male bovine excrement.
They have probably learnt from Richard Feynman's statement regarding the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, when he compared the NASA management's estimation of the catastrophic failure rate of the spacecraft with the engineers' estimates:
It appears that there are enormous differences of opinions to the probability a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000. The higher figures come from working engineers, and the very low figures come from management. What are the causes and consequences of this lack of agreement? Since 1 part in 100,000 would imply that one could launch a shuttle every day for 300 years expecting to lose only one, we could properly ask, "What is the cause of management's fantastic faith in the machinery?"
(From Appendix F: Personal Observations on the Reliability of the Shuttle, in 'What do you care what other people think?'.)
Easy Rider
SpaceX has made space look ... easy. Which, of course, it still isn't. But their achievements really cannot be underestimated - they have rewritten the book. Far and away Musk's most interesting company, although he obviously doesn't deserve all the credit. He certainly employs some stellar engineers. I'll always remember the first demo launch of Crew Dragon in 2020 - such an incredible thing, seeing that uber-slick capsule and those uber-slick suits, cruising up to space like a bus ride to town. One of the few highlights of lockdown!