As of this writing, it's just two days before the final votes of the 2024 election are cast, and things could not be closer. That is unless you saw the new poll conducted by Ann Selzer in Iowa, which was released on Saturday evening. According to the "gold standard" pollster, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by three points in the Hawkeye State.

For context, Trump won the state by eight points in 2020 against Joe Biden, and it has become solidly red over the last decade. For Harris to be up there at all, much less by three points, is legitimately shocking. Expectedly, the news has Democrats jazzed, with some extrapolating the result nationally and suggesting a landslide is on the way for the vice president. //

To be frank, I don't think Selzer's final offering in Iowa is anywhere close to reality, and there's empirical data to support that viewpoint. For example, the poll has Harris leading with seniors by 19 points. Trump won seniors there by nine points in 2020. The idea that Trump has lost 28 points among seniors in a relatively red state just doesn't compute. //

Further, according to the poll, the top issue for people in Iowa isn't inflation or the economy. It's "democracy." Iowans supposedly also care more about abortion than the economy. //

Lastly, it's worth noting that Selzer had Trump up 14 points just a few months ago. Are we really to believe Iowa, a red state, has shifted 17 points toward the Democrat nominee? I mean, come on.

How did we end up here? Did Ann Selzer release this poll to juice Harris given her long history of being allied with figures like Hillary Clinton, Claire McCaskill, and J.B. Pritzker? I don't know, and I'm not going to go that far. It's possible she genuinely ended up with an outlier and had the guts to go ahead and release it anyway instead of massaging it like some other pollsters would have done. //

Bruce427
8 hours ago edited
When your poll makeup is +3 Democrat in a State that is +8 Republican, you get a Garbage result such as Selzer's. Selzer's "result" is like saying Harris is leading Trump in Texas (which is R+10).

It's meant to be a "suppression poll" designed/calculated to depress Republican turnout (e.g., it's meant to produce the mindset of: What's the use in voting if Harris is up by 5 points?).

Iowa Republicans, don't let this happen!!! Get out and Vote!!!

The Atlas poll (the most accurate in 2020) has Trump up in all 7 swing States (albeit only by .2% in a couple of the Leftist dominated States).

While Harris is up in ... None. //

anon-be74
10 hours ago
Or the fix is in and they are only predicting what will happen as a result of that fix. Maybe not in Iowa but in Pennsylvania, NC etc…. There was an article yesterday about the seismic shift to Harris after the MSG rally. They are planting stories out in the media and they all point in the same direction. That way, after Harris wins (god help us all) they can point to those “outlier” polls as evidence of a massive shift to Harris. No such thing as coincidence. All is planned ahead of time. They will cheat by all means available. //

Scholar
9 hours ago edited
The golden rule in statistics/polling is that when your results don't make sense go back and check the survey instrument and turn it totally upsides down. Selzer is a reputable pollster yet she has either broken the golden rule or she has lost her mind or both. Interestingly, Emerson College poll released on the same day has Trump up by 10%, at 53%-43%. //

anon-x8p1
9 hours ago
Iowa has no use for Kamala Harris. Gaining zero traction in 2010 in Iowa is when she make the choice to drop out before a single pimratry vote was cast or caucus was won.

She knew she would lose her home state California than so she scrambled t take her name off the California ballot to avoid that lasting humiliation.

Harris is selling cow dung if she claims Iowa is wildly in her camp.

Lex Naturae anon-x8p1
9 hours ago
Agreed. Look at what the campaigns actually do, which reveals their relatively-accurate internal polls. And neither candidate is scheduled to be in IA! //

cyberjockey
5 hours ago
Here's my .02 worth. Just consider EVERY SINGLE poll BS. And look at the fact that Trump has been packing venues to overflowing for his rallies, while Harris has to bus in people and is lucky to have a few thousand.

From a Red State article by Ward that had an excerpt of Brit Hume talking about how they used to predict before polls became the "end-all be-all" regarding the state of the race: "You relied on their events, how the events seemed to go, how well-organized they seemed to be. You looked at the response of the audience at these events."

And if you go by those metrics, Trump is killing it at his rallies. And I honestly think that is 100% more accurate than the polls.

If you see Trump filling venues for his rallies, while Harris is struggling to get a few thousand, yet you still believe the polls saying the race is close, maybe it's time to stop watching and listening to all the propaganda media. //

Phantom1973 cyberjockey
5 hours ago
But remember in the last 'fair and free' election there were captured instances where the total vote remained constant and the percentages changed dramatically. Such things happen when you move a 'mouse' prematurely.

But never made the light of day due to 'lack of standing' which the the judicial equivalent of 'hear no evil, see no evil.'

These polls are 'pre-framing' the public for another 'fair and free' repeat.

But forget that ever did or could happen our electronic voting machines are infallible and impenetrable.

How about some oceanfront property in Arizona if you believe that. //

Lex Naturae
10 hours ago edited
Selzer has a checkered history of accuracy. A better guide IMO is the most accurate pollster in 2020, Atlas Intel:

🔴 Arizona - Trump +6
🔴 North Carolina - Trump +3
🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
🔴 Nevada - Trump +5
🔴 Pennsylvania - Trump +2
🔴 Michigan - Trump +2
🔴 Wisconsin - Trump +1

Atlasintel #A - LV - 11/2

Or just start with the RCP polling average: Trump is up by 1.0 percent in the battleground states. RCP was off by 2.7 percent in 2020, in favor of Biden-Harris, so add 2.7 percent. And Trump is up by (roughly) 3.7 percent in the battleground states!