Weminuche45
an hour ago
"Why Are Betting Odds So Telling?"

The odds are set with the intent of having an equal amount of money bet on both options. As money comes in, if more money in bets are placed on one side, the odds are adjusted to even it out. Why? Bec if even money is bet on both sides of all bets, the casino always wins, via the juice/fees. So the odds are set by what people are betting, not a prediction by the casino of what will happen.

People bet on things for all sorts of reasons, usually emotional reasons, and almost always lose money over the long term. Casinos operate pragmatically and flow with whatever the betters are betting and win over the long term regardless, without any need to make accurate predictions or know something other people don't.

It is an interesting datapoint though. We'll see... //

Lugger66 Robert A Hahn
2 hours ago edited
True but what I wanna know is why Trump is dropping like a rock in poly market. Literally at the pace it’s changing it’s gonna be inverted in 24 to 48 hours. //

Robert A Hahn Lugger66
5 minutes ago
In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long. . . . There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.

-- Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi