It estimates there are over 100 million consumer routers currently in active use across the US, and the FCC's order impacts the replacement cycle for every one of these devices, as new models cannot be authorized unless they secure Conditional Approval and agree to onshoring requirements.

The existing channel inventory of previously authorized router models will absorb initial demand, but that buffer is finite, and if the Conditional Approval process cannot achieve sufficient throughput within 6 to 12 months, consumers and ISPs will face a constrained selection, the GEA says.

The upshot will be that many will not be able to replace aging and outdated routers, which is more likely to leave them vulnerable to attackers taking advantage of any security flaws in them.

Firms that make router silicon such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Broadcom operate on global roadmaps, the report states. If the US certification pathway becomes slower or less predictable than equivalent processes in Europe or Asia, then vendors will prioritize launches in those markets, the report claims. US consumers would see delayed availability of new Wi-Fi 7 models, reduced model selection, or higher prices as companies have to cover compliance costs across fewer units sold.