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The space suits worn during SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn mission are a sci-fi reimagining of NASA’s classic marshmallow suits. There’s a good reason why they look so different.
SpaceX allegedly used an “unapproved launch control room” and “did not conduct the required T-2 hour poll” for the June 2023 Falcon 9 flight for the PSN SATRA Mission, which involved launching an Indonesian communication satellite. In July, SpaceX then allegedly used an unapproved, newly constructed “rocket propellant farm,” or a specialized facility to fuel the EchoStar XXIV/Jupiter mission. SpaceX now has 30 days to respond to the civil penalty.
The proposed fine is raising speculation that the FAA wants to get tough with SpaceX, which is also facing allegations that it violated environmental regulations with Starship rocket launches. Last month, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket also failed to stick its landing, resulting in a fiery explosion. It's unclear what caused the malfunction, but the FAA has cleared the company to continue Falcon 9 flights in the interim. //
Last week, SpaceX also blasted US government regulations for pushing back the next launch of Starship to possibly late November when the vehicle is ready to fly for its next test. “The narrative that we operate free of, or in defiance of, environmental regulation is demonstrably false,” the company said at the time.
In response, the FAA told PCMag it's conducting a more in-depth review of the next Starship flight due to changes made by SpaceX. "In addition, SpaceX submitted new information in mid-August detailing how the environmental impact of Flight 5 will cover a larger area than previously reviewed. This requires the FAA to consult with other agencies," the agency said.
In February 2023, the FAA also fined SpaceX $175,000 for failing to submit pre-launch data to the agency for an earlier Starlink mission. SpaceX later paid the fine in October 2023.
In mid-November 2023, a disastrous SpaceX launch, which saw the explosion of not one but two rockets, offered a rare opportunity to study the effects of such phenomena on the ionosphere.
A study by Russian scientists revealed how this explosion temporarily blew open a hole in the ionosphere stretching from the Yucatan to the southeastern U.S.
Although far from the first rocket-induced disturbance in the ionosphere, this is one of the first explosive events in the ionosphere to be extensively studied. //
November 18, 2023, wasn’t a great day for the commercial spaceflight company SpaceX. While testing its stainless steel-clad Starship, designed to be the company’s chariot to Mars, the spacecraft exploded four minutes after liftoff over the skies of Boca Chica, Texas. //
This new study confirms that the ionosphere experienced a “large-amplitude total electron content depletion,” likely reinforced by a fuel exhaust impact of the Super Heavy rocket engine, which also exploded a little more than a minute earlier at lower altitude once it separated from the Starship. The research team collected this data from 2,500 ground stations scattered across North America and the Caribbean and found that the hole extended largely from Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula and the southeastern U.S., though the exact size of the hole is unknown. //
scientists report that this Starship-induced ion hole caused by “catastrophic phenomena” closed up after 30 or 40 minutes. But these kinds of interactions are still poorly understood, and that’s concerning considering how central the ionosphere is to global technologies—not to mention human health.
It's unlikely Boeing can fly all six of its Starliner missions before retirement of the ISS in 2030. //
Ten years ago next month, NASA announced that Boeing, one of the agency's most experienced contractors, won the lion's share of government money available to end the agency's sole reliance on Russia to ferry its astronauts to and from low-Earth orbit.
At the time, Boeing won $4.2 billion from NASA to complete the development of the Starliner spacecraft and fly a minimum of two, and potentially up to six, operational crew flights to rotate crews between Earth and the International Space Station (ISS). SpaceX won a $2.6 billion contract for essentially the same scope of work.
A decade later, the Starliner program finds itself at a crossroads after Boeing learned it will not complete the spacecraft's first Crew Flight Test with astronauts onboard. NASA formally decided Saturday that Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who launched on the Starliner capsule on June 5, will instead return to Earth in a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft. Put simply, NASA isn't confident enough in Boeing's spacecraft after it suffered multiple thruster failures and helium leaks on the way to the ISS. //
On Saturday, senior NASA leaders decided it wasn't worth the risk. The two astronauts, who originally planned for an eight-day stay at the station, will now spend eight months on the orbiting research lab until they come back to Earth with SpaceX. //
So why did NASA and Boeing engineers reach different conclusions? "I think we’re looking at the data, and we view the data and the uncertainty that’s there differently than Boeing does," said Jim Free, NASA's associate administrator and the agency's most senior civil servant. "It’s not a matter of trust. It’s our technical expertise and our experience that we have to balance. We balance risk across everything, not just Starliner."
The people at the top of NASA's decision-making tree have either flown in space before or had front-row seats to the calamitous decision NASA made in 2003 to not seek more data on the condition of Space Shuttle Columbia's left wing after the impact of a block of foam from the shuttle's fuel tank during launch. //
Now, it seems that culture may truly have changed. With SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft available to give Wilmore and Williams a ride home, the decision was relatively straightforward. Ken Bowersox, head of NASA's space operations mission directorate, said the managers polled for their opinion all supported bringing the Starliner spacecraft back to Earth without anyone onboard.
However, NASA and Boeing need to answer for how the Starliner program got to this point. //
SpaceX, which NASA has tapped to rescue the Starliner crew, has now launched eight operational long-duration crew missions to the International Space Station to date, plus an initial piloted test flight of the Dragon spacecraft in 2020 and several more fully private human spaceflight missions. SpaceX has finished all of its work in its initial commercial crew contract with NASA and is now working off of an extended contract to carry the program through 2030, the planned retirement date for the ISS. //
Right now, the prime route is through SpaceX. NASA continues to fly one astronaut on each Russian Soyuz spacecraft in exchange for a seat for a Russian cosmonaut on each SpaceX crew mission. //
Assuming the investigation doesn't uncover any additional problems and NASA and Boeing return Starliner to flight with astronauts in 2026, there will not be enough time left in the space station's remaining life—as it stands today—for Starliner to fly all six of its contracted missions at a rate of one per year. It's difficult to imagine a scenario where NASA elects to fly astronauts to the space station exclusively on Starliner, given SpaceX's track record of success and the fact that NASA is already paying SpaceX for crew missions through the end of this decade.
Notably, NASA has only given Boeing the "Authority To Proceed" for three of the six potential operational Starliner missions. This milestone, known as ATP, is a decision point in contracting lingo where the customer—in this case, NASA—places a firm order for a deliverable. NASA has previously said it awards these task orders about two to three years prior to a mission's launch.
The commercial crew contracts are structured as Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) agreements, where NASA can order individual missions from SpaceX and Boeing as needed. If SpaceX keeps performing well and the space station is actually decommissioned in 2030, it may turn out that NASA officials decide they just don't need more than three operational flights of Starliner. //
Lone Striker Smack-Fu Master, in training
7y
62
accdc said:
Thank you Stephen, and Eric, for your fantastic coverage of this issue.Here’s what I (as a layman with little technical expertise) don’t get:
How does SpaceX make it look so easy, and Boeing make it look so, well, ridiculous?
SpaceX designs, manufactures and integrates most components themselves. In Boeing's case, the thruster manufacturer is Aerojet. In order to make changes or redesign the components, there is a huge bureaucratic barrier in place. They have to jump through extraordinary hoops, not only engineers but also procurement, legal, and any number of departments. In SpaceX's case, it's a walk down the corridor to talk to engineers to discuss the problem and design the fix.
Boeing is also in the dark ages in terms of software development (my field.) SpaceX has a more Silicon Valley/Agile software design methodology where you make many, faster, smaller changes and test them extensively with small unit tests all the way through to hardware-in-the-middle testing to ensure things work as intended. Every tiny change gets rigorously tested to ensure there are no defects or regressions. Boeing's ancient software development process was one of the primary factors in their first Orbital Flight Test failure where they nearly lost the vehicle twice due to software bugs with the mission clock and reentry procedures.
Boeing relies partially on paperwork to validate their spacecraft (whether it's contracts with sub-contractors or studies in place of actual testing) and they've lost the engineers and the engineering culture from the early spaceflight era. //
HiWayne! Smack-Fu Master, in training
1y
50
Ten years they’ve been tinkering with Starliner. That’s crazy. The first crewed Mercury flight and Apollo 15 spanned ten years.
Yeah I know, I know. NASA had an insane budget back then, but damn. Boeing had the benefit of half a century of spaceflight experience and they’re struggling this much to get to LEO. //
Dachshund Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
4y
110
accdc said:
Thank you Stephen, and Eric, for your fantastic coverage of this issue.Here’s what I (as a layman with little technical expertise) don’t get:
How does SpaceX make it look so easy, and Boeing make it look so, well, ridiculous?
Having worked for or with these companies as an engineer, the most concise explanation I have is culture.
Boeings culture is not technically focused, nor mission focused. Boeings culture is Boeing focused with a particular emphasis on shareholders. The overwhelming majority of managers I’ve worked with at Boeing view engineers as a plug and play commodity and are woefully ignorant of the general subject matter they manage. Many I know at Boeing have an exceptionally difficult time taking responsibility for mistakes that Boeing makes. Whether it’s commercial planes or crew capsules, it’s somebody else’s fault and Boeing knew best. Hubris is rampant across Boeing. What’s fascinating there is that there isn’t a damn thing worth being proud of in recent years, but the cognitive dissonance remains strong.
SpaceX culture is mission focused. Their managers tend to understand what it is they are managing. Their workforce is rather young, however, they test things and are willing to publicly fail in a way that Boeing and others will not stomach. When SpaceX does fail, they tend to take full responsibility, learn from the issue and solve the problem.
SpaceX is more or less doing what NACA and subsequently NASA did in their infancy. It’s nothing new, but it’s a major difference as compared to what NASA and its ecosystem have evolved to since those early years. //
Malmesbury Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
3m
341
TLStetler said:
A big part of the problem is Boeing put too many thrusters in too small a space and operated them at a duty cycle which caused everything to overheat. Said overheating caused vapor lock in the propellant lines, and Teflon seals to soften and swell.On the other hand, if you've seen images of Dragon with the aeroshell off the thrusters are distributed spatially, not crowded together. Plumbing and control lines are not near the throats of said thrusters.
This is not even rocket science, any decent Hot Rodder knows not to place propellant/fuel lines etc. in a "hot box."
The problems are inherent in the development methods and company structures.
SpaceX insources - mostly because of cost, but also control. There are, deliberately, few barriers between the engineers working on various parts of the system.
The Boeing/Aerojet relationship is a key counter example - because of a arguments over money they started treating each other as the enemy.
Boeing is attempting to design to perfection, then test. If anything goes wrong at the test stage, they are actually in interactive hardware development. Without the hardware, or low cost basis to do the large number of physical tests required. SpaceX assumed they are in iterative development from the start.
During the initial hours of the spaceflight, the crew will seek to fly in a highly elliptical orbit, reaching an altitude as high as 1,400 km (870 miles) above the planet's surface. This will be the highest Earth-orbit mission ever flown by humans and the farthest any person has flown from Earth since the Apollo Moon landings more than half a century ago. This will expose the crew to a not insignificant amount of radiation, and they will collect biological data to assess harms. //
Isaacman's interest in performing the first private spacewalk accelerated, by years, SpaceX's development of these spacesuits. This really is just the first generation of the suit, and SpaceX is likely to continue iterating toward a spacesuit that has its own portable life support system (PLSS). This is the "backpack" on a traditional spacesuit that allows NASA astronauts to perform spacewalks untethered to the International Space Station.
The general idea is that, as the Starship vehicle makes the surface of the Moon and eventually Mars more accessible to more people, future generations of these lower-cost spacesuits will enable exploration and settlement. That journey, in some sense, begins with this mission's brief spacewalks, with Isaacman and Gillis tethered to the Dragon vehicle for life support. //
This is the first of three "Polaris" missions that Isaacman is scheduled to fly with SpaceX. The plan for the second Polaris mission, also to fly on a Dragon spacecraft, has yet to be determined. But it may well employ a second-generation spacesuit based on learnings from this spaceflight. The third flight, unlikely to occur before at least 2030, will be an orbital launch aboard the company's Starship vehicle—making Isaacman and his crew the first to fly on that rocket.
ridley
So to be able to use their spacesuits they need to fit a square peg into a round hole?
Best give Mr Lovell a call. //
Avoiding standard docking and space suit adapters seems like a good way of wasting money and time
The thing that most surprises me about this whole mess is why NASA would ever consider that having a different design of docking adapter and space suit for each type of American vehicle that is to dock with the ISS was a good idea..
That the Soviet G2S vehicles would use different docking adapters and space suit connectors is expected: the two parts of the original ISS design were always intended to use differing docking ports and space suit connectors from the get-go.
However, it beggars belief that NASA would not have specfied a common set of docking adapters for all American spacecraft as well as common space suit interface(s), if only to save costs and re-implementation effort by basing these interfaces on than the well-tested Shuttle docking and space suit connectors. AFAIK those never caused problems throughout their useful life. //
Re: Avoiding standard space suit adapters seems like a good way of wasting money and time
No, giving money to SpaceX was seen as a good way of wasting money and time.
REMEMBER: when this all started, Boeing was the shoo-in, and that goofy SpaceX startup was the complete waste of time and money.
Nobody expected SpaceX to actually ever reach Station.
It never entered anyone's mind that SpaceX would eventually have to rescue a Boeing crew.
The American docking adapters ARE standard.
https://www.internationaldockingstandard.com/
https://www.nasa.gov/missions/station/meet-the-international-docking-adapter/
American spacecraft, INCLUDING Shuttle, either dock to this, or are berthed by the robot arm to a standard pressure door, which allows larger cargo. //
Re: other good ways of wasting money and time
To ensure SLS block 1 would launch by 2016 congress decided to use an upper stage (Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage) based on Centaur which has been flying since the 60s. The wimpy ICPS massively restricts SLS capabilities so a new Exploration Upper Stage was ordered for SLS block 1B. SLS is assembled on a mobile launch platform in the vertical assembly building and the rocket and platform are carried out together to the launch site by the crawler/transporter. The MLP includes a tower to fill the core stage and upper stage with propellants. The solid rocket boosters have grown an extra segment each since the space shuttle so the combined mass of SLS and MLP are now sufficient damage the crawler transporter's tracks and they path the travel to the launch site. EUS is longer than ICPS so the propellant connections are at a different height. A whole new MLP is required otherwise SLS block 1B would be delayed because modifications to MLP1 would not be able to start until after Artemis III.
Clearly this situation is untenable. What if MLP2 was completed before EUS? Boeing would look bad for delaying Artemis IV. The solution was simple: do not decide what height the propellant connections will be at until the last possible minute. Bechtel cannot start design of MLP2 without that. Moving the connections also moves the fans that blow hydrogen leaks away before the concentration gets big enough for an explosion. Designing the MLP for a choice of connection heights is also tricky. The platform must be optimized for mass so it does not go much further over the limits of the crawler transporter.
If Boeing and SpaceX had to agree on a flight suit connector US astronauts would now have a choice of rides to the ISS: Soyuz or Shenzou.
Believe it or not there is a worse solution. NASA could decide the shape of the flight suit connectors. Congress would then have an opportunity to help like they did with SLS. Giving Boeing and SpaceX the freedom to work independently of congress (and each other) saves a huge amount of time and money. It also means a flight suit design issue does not ground both crew transport systems at the same time.
The space agency also confirmed key elements exclusively reported by Ars over the last week, chiefly that NASA has quietly been working for weeks with SpaceX on a potential rescue mission for Wilmore and Williams, that the Crew-9 mission launch has been delayed to September 24 to account for this possibility, and that Starliner is unable to undock autonomously with the current software configuration on the vehicle. //
FabioLx Seniorius Lurkius
6y
10
Subscriptor++
Makes you think that maybe, just maybe, they found issues in the autonomous software back in 2022, but didn't tell anyone because they weren't visible if you couldn't get access to detailed data, and they were banking on not needing it anymore. //
Ajax81611 Smack-Fu Master, in training
3y
50
Subscriptor
NASA's rules for human space flight require less than a 1 in 270 chance of LOM, LOC, or serious injury to the crew. I wish someone had asked, "What is the current risk level assessment? One in what number?" //
Ajax81611 Smack-Fu Master, in training
3y
50
Subscriptor
Why on Earth (pun?) would you on a TEST flight not leave in BOTH options, manual or automated return? I can't fathom that. If the answer is, "this spacecraft isn't capable of that," then I have a bunch of other questions. ///
Quite probably the hardware is different and they would need to test that integration before having confidence in the autonomous mode
Like Starlink, China's Qianfan satellites have an easy-to-pack flat-panel design.
BadSuperblock Ars Praefectus
15y
3,125
rbtr4bp said:
I think there is an argument that SpaceX, as a new and agile company with something to prove, is going to do things better. People who are willing to accept more risk are attracted to the new "startup" and willing to work harder for the same or less money because of the adventure and excitement.
...
No, it doesn’t necessarily follow that this incompetence was a consequence of "maturing." It is not a foregone conclusion. For one thing, what is your definition of "mature"? We think of technology companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Intel to be "mature" because they are now going on 40 years old. Well, since Boeing was founded in 1916, by the time they were 50 years old in 1966, Boeing was taking some of the biggest, most rewarding, and most admired engineering risks and innovations of their entire history: Projects like components for the Apollo moon program, and the absolutely revolutionary and widely loved 747 airliner. This company, half a century old, was creating these exciting, "startup" quality projects. At that time, they were more "mature" than the companies we now call mature, but they had not lost their innovative spirit, engineering discipline, and quality control.
It is generally agreed that the root cause of the Boeing malaise was not the age of the company, but the decision of one CEO and board to allow McDonnell Douglas management to take over Boeing, instituting the changes that poisoned the company. In other words, it was not a rot from within, but a culture change imposed by outsiders.
"Risk remains that we may record additional losses in future periods." //
Boeing announced another financial charge Wednesday for its troubled Starliner commercial crew program, bringing the company's total losses on Starliner to $1.6 billion. //
These losses have generally been caused by schedule delays and additional work to solve problems on Starliner. When NASA awarded Boeing a $4.2 billion contract to complete development of the Starliner spacecraft a decade ago, the aerospace contractor projected the capsule would be ready to fly astronauts by the end of 2017.
It turns out the Crew Flight Test didn't launch until June 5, 2024. //
When NASA selected Boeing and SpaceX to develop the Starliner and Crew Dragon spacecraft for astronaut missions, the agency signed fixed-price agreements with each contractor. These fixed-price contracts mean the contractors, not the government, are responsible for paying for cost overruns. //
It's instructive to compare these costs with those of SpaceX's Crew Dragon program, which started flying astronauts in 2020. All of NASA's contracts with SpaceX for a similar scope of work on the Crew Dragon program totaled more than $3.1 billion, but any expenses paid by SpaceX are unknown because it is a privately held company.
SpaceX has completed all six of its original crew flights for NASA, while Boeing is at least a year away from starting operational service with Starliner. In light of Boeing's delays, NASA extended SpaceX's commercial crew contract to cover eight additional round-trip flights to the space station through the end of the 2020s. //
cyberfunk Ars Scholae Palatinae
12y
824
Blaming fixed price contracts is rich. They're basically admitting incompetence by blaming the cost structure they agreed to.. either because they agreed to it, or because they can't properly estimate cost and deliver quality product on budget. Either way they look like idiots. I'm glad they're holding the bag this time and not the taxpayer. //
BigFire Ars Scholae Palatinae
3y
985
SpaceX will not bid on Cost Plus contracts because the company isn't setup with the kind of extra layers of auditing to justifying everything that will trigger the cost overrun payments. Frankly Boeing Space isn't setup to do anything other than Cost Plus (witness ISS and SLS center core). Nevermind the same ballpark, they're not even playing the same sports, quoting Jules Winnfield from Pulp fiction. //
Dachshund Smack-Fu Master, in training
4y
99
You could see this shift happening within Boeing a little over two decades ago. I had the privilege of learning from some of the last grey beards whose work had given Boeing their stellar reputation before they retired. Those grey beards were worn thin and got zero respect from the hot shot, tassel loafer MBAs hustling them to do things “better, faster, cheaper”.
Internally we knew it was all going to hell, we just weren’t sure when the public would see it for themselves. I thank the space exploration Gods for SpaceX - if it weren’t for them Boeing and every other crook company could keep playing the “space is hard” card and the cost plus buffet open. //
Transmission Integrity Seniorius Lurkius
5y
8
Subscriptor
RickVS said:
The bean counters deserve this. If instead of shareholder value they had focused on top-notch engineering, they probably would have already flown crew to the ISS at least a couple of times.
And as a result it would probably have been cheaper/profitable. //
wagnerrp Ars Legatus Legionis
14y
26,508
Subscriptor
SpaceHamster said:
Seems like a lot of animosity toward the NIMBY-ites, but after thinking about it while reading this article and comments, I don't blame them at all; I'd do the same if SpaceX (or anyone else) tried to build a giant launch facility in my backyard.
You're speaking of two different things, NIMBYism and Boca Chica Village. The latter never really existed. A developer bought up a bunch of land and tried to make it something, but then a hurricane destroyed it all. Power was restored, but no water. When SpaceX started buying up land, there were only six permanent residents. By the time they decided to shift Starship operations there, it was down to four permanent residents.
There was no town, and sure it sucks if someone decides they're going to set up a rocket manufacturing facility right next to your retirement home, but they did it exactly there because there was no one left there. The biggest problem was that the "very generous offers" were based off the tax assessed value of the land, which was next to nothing.
The next closest population is 8km away, and it's doubtful that's even where much of the NIMBYism is coming from.
.
As a part of this multi-year process, the Federal Aviation Administration completed a Final Programmatic Environmental Assessment in June 2022. Following that review, SpaceX received approval to conduct up to five Starship launches from South Texas annually. //
SpaceX has asked the FAA for permission for up to 25 flights a year from South Texas, as well as the capability to land both the Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster stage back at the launch site. On Monday, the FAA signaled that it is inclined to grant permission for this. //
SpaceX also is developing more powerful variants of its rocket, and the launch of these vehicles would also be permitted. Under the environmental assessment completed in 2022, SpaceX's plans called for a 50-meter-tall Starship and a 71-meter-tall Super Heavy booster stage. Its upgraded Starship would be 70 meters tall, atop an 80-meter boost stage, for a total stack height of 150 meters.
The company is contemplating a far greater thrust for each of the vehicles, more than doubling Starship's thrust. A bigger, more powerful launch system will require more than 1,500 tons of liquid oxygen and methane propellant. //
After the public comment period, the FAA will prepare a final environmental assessment and render a decision on the request.
SpaceX returned its first 21 Dragon cargo missions to splashdowns in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Los Angeles. When an upgraded human-rated version of Dragon started flying in 2019, SpaceX moved splashdowns to the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico to be closer to the company's refurbishment and launch facilities at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The benefits of landing near Florida included a faster handover of astronauts and time-sensitive cargo back to NASA and shorter turnaround times between missions.
The old version of Dragon, known as Dragon 1, separated its trunk after the deorbit burn, allowing the trunk to fall into the Pacific. With the new version of Dragon, called Dragon 2, SpaceX changed the reentry profile to jettison the trunk before the deorbit burn. This meant that the trunk remained in orbit after each Dragon mission, while the capsule reentered the atmosphere on a guided trajectory. The trunk, which is made of composite materials and lacks a propulsion system, usually takes a few weeks or a few months to fall back into the atmosphere and doesn't have control of where or when it reenters. //
In May, a 90-pound chunk of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft that departed the International Space Station fell on the property of a "glamping" resort in North Carolina. At the same time, a homeowner in a nearby town found a smaller piece of material that also appeared to be from the same Dragon mission.
These events followed the discovery in April of another nearly 90-pound piece of debris from a Dragon capsule on a farm in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. SpaceX and NASA later determined the debris fell from orbit in February, and earlier this month, SpaceX employees came to the farm to retrieve the wreckage, according to CBC. //
This means SpaceX can no longer splash down off the coast of Florida because the trajectory would bring debris from the trunk down over populated areas in the United States or Mexico.
When recoveries shift to the West Coast, the Dragon capsule will fire its Draco thrusters to slow down, and then once on course for reentry, release the trunk to burn up in the atmosphere on a similar trajectory. Any debris from the trunk that doesn't burn up will impact the Pacific Ocean while the capsule deploys parachutes for a slow-speed splashdown. //
“One benefit of the move to the West Coast is much better weather," Walker said. "We have a number of sites in Florida, that we feel like we’re sometimes threading hurricanes a lot. When we look at the flight rules for wind, rain, wave height, all of the criteria that determine our flight rules for return, we actually saw that the West Coast sites that we’re looking at have much better weather, which allows us to have much better return availability.”
The Falcon 9 is grounded pending an investigation, possibly delaying upcoming crew flights. //
"Upper stage restart to raise perigee resulted in an engine RUD for reasons currently unknown," Musk wrote in an update two hours after the launch. RUD (rapid unscheduled disassembly) is a term of art in rocketry that usually signifies a catastrophic or explosive failure. //
Going into Thursday's mission, the current version of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, known as the Falcon 9 Block 5, was indisputably the most reliable launch vehicle in history. Since debuting in May 2018, the Falcon 9 Block 5, which NASA has certified for astronaut flights, never had a mission failure in all of its 297 launches before the ill-fated Starlink 9-3 mission. //
The Falcon 9's only total in-flight launch failure occurred on its 19th flight on June 28, 2015, when the upper stage's liquid oxygen tank burst a couple of minutes after launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. The rocket disintegrated in the upper atmosphere, dooming a Dragon cargo capsule en route to the space station.
SpaceX resumed Falcon 9 launches six months later in December 2015. On that flight, SpaceX landed the Falcon 9's first stage booster back at Cape Canaveral for the first time, a historic achievement and a harbinger of the company's later success in reusing rockets. //
SpaceX's Falcon family of rockets, which counted 335 consecutive successful launches since the on-pad explosion in 2016, or 344 flights since an in-flight failure. Both numbers are all-time industry records.
A booster landing would be a calculated risk to SpaceX's launch tower infrastructure. //
In a short video released Thursday, possibly to celebrate the US Fourth of July holiday with the biggest rocket's red glare of them all, SpaceX provided new footage of the most recent test of its Starship launch vehicle.
This test, the fourth of the experimental rocket that NASA is counting on to land its astronauts on the Moon, and which one day may launch humans to Mars, took place on June 6. During the flight, the first stage of the rocket performed well during ascent and, after separating from the upper stage, made a controlled reentry into the Gulf of Mexico. The Starship upper stage appeared to make a nominal flight through space before making a controlled—if fiery—landing in the Indian Ocean.
The new video focuses mostly on the "Super Heavy" booster stage and its entry into the Gulf. There is new footage from a camera on top of the 71-meter-tall first stage as well as a nearby buoy at water level. The video from the buoy, in particular, shows the first stage making an upright landing into the ocean.
SpaceX teases an image of Starship's large launch tower in South Texas at the Starbase facility. Prominently featured are the two "chopsticks," large arms intended to catch the first stage booster as it slowly descends back toward its launch pad.
Then, in simulated footage, the video shows Starship's first stage descending back toward the launch tower with the title "Flight 5." And then it fades out.
Dtiffster Ars Praefectus
8y
3,075
Subscriptor
expand...As has been pointed out by others they have gotten cheaper on an absolute basis inflation adjusted as well. And there isn't much competition that is cheaper than them on an absolute basis, and all of it with only a fraction of their capacity. You got Electron at 200/300 kg for SSO/LEO for 8.5 mil, PSLV for 1.6/3.2 tonnes SSO/LEO for 18 mil, Vega C at 1.45 tonnes SSO for 37 (very subsidized) mil euro, and GSLV for 2.5/3/6 tonnes GTO/SSO/LEO for 47 mil. F9 does that with a droneship landing 5.4/12/18+ tonnes GTO/SSO/LEO for 69.5 mil. If all you need is exactly the performance of one of those rockets for one payload, then yes they are cheaper. And that is true for some payloads, but not for a substantial amount of the market. Otherwise those rockets would be out launching SpaceX right now, right? And rocket lab wouldn't be building neutron, right? Sounds like you are the one falling victim to hater math.
And you've got plenty of their commerical (i.e. non starlink) missions use a pretty substantial amount of F9 and FHs capabilities. They've launches F9 with expended boosters and FHs with expended center cores many times in the last few years. Most of the GTO birds are bigger than GSLV can handle, and F9 can handle most upper birth GTO sats to synchronous and the smaller lower birth GTO to supersynchronous that Ariane V used to handle for a fraction of what customers used to pay for the ride share without a hassle. Crew and Cargo dragon missions obviously need SpaceXs vehicles and use about 2/3 of the F9s capacity.
And although we haven't yet got substantially better rockets on the market yet, SpaceX has driven competitors to try. An Atlas V 551 used to cost 250+ mil, and DIVH over 600 mil. The top of the line Vulcan with 6 boosters which is roughly on par with DIVH is being sold for 200ish mil. There are a whole mess of at least partially reusable rockets that are only going to exist because of SpaceX. Fanboy math or not the market is working and it's thanks to SpaceX spurring innovation. Hate all you want, things are going swimmingly, and notice that it is not launch customers that are complaining about SpaceX.
Edit: forgot Alpha at 630/1030 kg SSO/LEO for 17.5 mil, which is again too small to eat many launches. //
expand...We've seen reporting recently that SpaceX appears to execute a Starlink launch for an internal cost of about $20M. That suggests they could offer ASDS launches profitably for $30M and RTLS launches for even less. If they were doing that, who the hell would invest in Stoke Space or Rocket Lab or any company not backed by Jeff Bezos? //
You'd think they had promised to make launch free at this point. They're 17% lower per-launch than they were just seven years ago and well below half of what the industry norm was prior to their entrance on the market.
The space agency did consider alternatives to splashing the station. //
NASA has awarded an $843 million contract to SpaceX to develop a "US Deorbit Vehicle." This spacecraft will dock to the International Space Station in 2029 and then ensure the large facility makes a controlled reentry through Earth's atmosphere before splashing into the ocean in 2030.. //
"This decision also supports NASA’s plans for future commercial destinations and allows for the continued use of space near Earth."
NASA has a couple of reasons for bringing the space station's life to a close in 2030. Foremost among these is that the station is aging. Parts of it are now a quarter of a century old. There are cracks on the Russian segment of the space station that are spreading. Although the station could likely be maintained beyond 2030, it would require increasing amounts of crew time to keep flying the station safely.
Additionally, NASA is seeking to foster a commercial economy in low-Earth orbit. To that end, it is working with several private companies to develop commercial space stations that would be able to house NASA astronauts, as well as those from other countries and private citizens, by or before 2030. By setting an end date for the station's lifetime and sticking with it, NASA can help those private companies raise money from investors. //
The station, the largest object humans have ever constructed in space, is too large to allow it to make an uncontrolled return to Earth. It has a mass of 450 metric tons and is about the size of an American football field. The threat to human life and property is too great. Hence the need for a deorbit vehicle. //
volcano.authors Smack-Fu Master, in training
6y
73
flerchin said:
The idea that SpaceX wouldn't even bid unless it was fixed price, and then came in well under the estimates for cost-plus is wild.
It's almost as though the cost-plus era has some political baggage that challengers like to point out.
RTWAP Smack-Fu Master, in training
1y
12
afidel said:
I assume SpaceX prefers the firm fixed price contract because it reduces the army of paper pushers needed and the amount of time that engineers and technicians need to waste documenting their work on the contract? I guess if you can actually execute correctly it's more profitable to just submit a bill and get paid than to do the old cost plus change order malarkey.
My speculation is that it enforces a certain discipline in the requirements. SpaceX isn't going to just happily go down every rabbit hole of dithering on requirements and possible changes because unless it's a costed and signed change order they'd be losing money on it. And anyone at NASA looking to change things knows it requires a highly visible contract change ($$$), not just a larger bill from the contractor. //
Tridus Ars Tribunus Militum
17y
2,189
Subscriptor
afidel said:
I assume SpaceX prefers the firm fixed price contract because it reduces the army of paper pushers needed and the amount of time ....
Yeah, exactly. They're not paying people handle the paperwork end of cost-plus.
Also if they think they can do it for significantly under that, the potential profit margin is higher since they'll get paid that no matter what it actually costs them to do it. It takes a high degree of confidence to want to go this way, but if any space company has the experience with this type of contract to make it work, it's SpaceX.
It REALLY showcases the differing mindset and abilities between them and a company that won't bid on fixed price contracts like Boeing, though.
"They're the largest satellite operator in the world." //
We discussed Starlink's rapid road to profitability—it took just five years from the first launch of operational satellites—and the future of the technology.
One of the keys to Starlink's success is its vertical integration as a core business at SpaceX, which operates the world's only reusable rocket, the Falcon 9. This has allowed the company not just to launch a constellation of 6,000 satellites—but to do so at relatively low cost.
"At one point, SpaceX had publicly said that it was $28 million," Henry said of the company's target for a Falcon 9 launch cost. "We believe today that they are below $20 million per launch and actually lower than that... I would put it in the mid teens for how much it costs them internally. And that's going down as they increase the reuse of the vehicle. Recently, they've launched their 20th, maybe 21st, use of a first-stage rocket. And as they can amortize the cost of the booster over a greater number of missions, that only helps them with their business case." //
SpaceX was founded as a launch company in 2002, first with the Falcon 1 and then the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. But it is clear today that a significant portion of the company's revenue, if not a majority, comes from its Starlink satellite internet business. So is it still primarily a rocket company?
"I think today they're a satellite communications company," Henry said of SpaceX. "I think it's interesting that Stéphane Israël from Arianespace—in the early days, like 2015, 2016 when Starlink was just announced—would try to court customers and say, 'Do you want to fund your competitor?' And no one really took him seriously. Now people are taking him very seriously. [SpaceX is] the largest satellite operator in the world. They have literally more than doubled the number of consumer subscribers for satellite internet in the world.. This is a humongous, nearly unrivaled impact that they've had on the industry."
SpaceX demonstrated Thursday that its towering Super Heavy booster and Starship rocket might one day soon be recovered and reused in the manner Elon Musk has envisioned for the future of space exploration.
For the first time, both elements of the nearly 400-foot-tall (121-meter) rocket not only launched successfully from SpaceX's Starbase facility near Brownsville, Texas, but also came back to Earth for controlled splashdowns at sea. This demonstration is a forerunner to future Starship test flights that will bring the booster, and eventually the upper stage, back to land for reuse again and again.
The two-stage rocket took off from Starbase at 7:50 am CDT (12:50 UTC) and headed east over the Gulf of Mexico with more than 15 million pounds of thrust, roughly twice the power of NASA's Saturn V rocket from the Apollo lunar program of the 1960s and 1970s.
With the first three Starship launches, the FAA license required SpaceX conduct a mishap investigation with federal oversight if the rocket failed to reach its destination intact. The outcome of the last test flight—Starship's breakup over the Indian Ocean—triggered such an investigation by SpaceX. //
But this approach isn't congruent with SpaceX's roadmap for Starship development. SpaceX's iterative approach is rooted in test flights, where engineers learn what and what doesn't work, then try to quickly fix it and fly again. A crash, or two or three, is always possible, if not likely. The FAA is making an adjustment for this week's mission.
"As part of its request for license modification, SpaceX proposed three scenarios involving the Starship entry that would not require an investigation in the event of the loss of the vehicle," the FAA said in a statement.
Based on language in the code of federal regulations, the FAA has the option to approve these exceptions. The FAA accepted three possible outcomes for the upcoming Starship test flight that would not trigger what would likely be a months-long mishap investigation.
These exceptions include the failure of Starship's heat shield during reentry, if the ship's flap system is unable to provide sufficient control under high dynamic pressure, and the failure of the Raptor engine system during the landing burn. If one of these scenarios occurs, the FAA will not require a mishap investigation, provided there was no serious injury or fatality to anyone on the ground, no damage to unrelated property, and no debris outside designated hazard areas.
This change is quite significant for the FAA and SpaceX. It shows that federal regulators, suffering from staffing and funding shortages, are making moves to try and keep up with SpaceX's rapid, and often ever-changing, development of Starship.
"If a different anomaly occurs with the Starship vehicle, an investigation may be warranted, as well as if an anomaly occurs with the Super Heavy booster rocket," the FAA said. //
Bannerdog Ars Praetorian
8y
410
Only SpaceX can say, "not all of our rockets crash".
Hopefully someday, "none of our rockets crash*". //
taxythingy Ars Centurion
7y
397
Subscriptor
uhuznaa said:
Just using somewhat contaminated preburner exhaust for pressurization the oxygen tanks (hot oxygen with some steam and CO2 in it) would be much simpler and lighter though than having pure propellant go through heat exchangers first. Best part is no part and so on. It would be a quite typical approach for them.At least all the valve and filter clogging in the last flight is hard to explain otherwise, where was all the ice coming from? Usually filters are just for protecting the engines (especially the pumps) from ingesting random debris ending up in the tanks but to have the filters of several engines clogged by ice there needs to be quite a lot of that. It's a mystery to me where all this ice came from. If you use clean oxygen for pressurization and purge the tanks with dry nitrogen before tanking there just should be no ice anywhere.
(They could tap hot methane off the nozzle cooling but there is no source for clean hot oxygen gas except using a dedicated heat exchanger just for that, and it seems the ice was in the oxygen tanks.)
The oxygen is super cooled to improve density and is getting close to the triple point (within 20K) at tank pressure, where solids can form. The general understanding is that solid O2 forms, probably at the liquid gas interface (boil off is cooling it further) and that then settles to the tank bottom as a slush. This is more likely to occur after the main burn when the tank is near empty.
On relight, that has to be filtered out, else it will either block the injectors or otherwise run rough.
The Shuttle had filters, but that was more for debris, if I remember correctly.