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In October, Biden insisted that “nobody can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore because of Hurricane Helene.”
“Scientists report that with warming oceans powering more intense rains, storms like Helene are getting stronger and stronger,” he said. “Today, in North Carolina, I saw the impacts of that fury: massive trees uprooted; homes literally swept off their foundations, swept down rivers; you know, families that are heartbroken.”
Yet is Hurricane Helene really proof that man-made climate change is making life more dangerous in the U.S.?
The Heritage Foundation special report “Keeping an Eye on the Storms: An Analysis of Trends in Hurricanes Over Time” answers definitively in the negative.
In the report, Joe D’Aleo, visiting fellow in Heritage’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment, and Kevin Dayaratna, chief statistician in Heritage’s Center for Data Analysis, break down the data. //
Although hurricanes may not have worsened with climate change, alarmists often claim that tropical cyclones are more destructive now than previously.
Twenty of the 30 most destructive hurricanes since 1900 have hit the mainland U.S. after 2020, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. Besides Hurricane Katrina, which carried out a devastating $200 billion in damage in 2005, all of the top four made landfall in the last decade. //
Yet this data does not reflect the worsening of hurricanes so much as the population growth and economic growth of the U.S. in coastal areas, D’Aleo and Dayaratna conclude.
For instance, only 1.3 million residents called Miami-Dade County, Florida, home in 1971, living in 473,200 housing units. By 2022, the population had grown to more than 2.6 million, and the housing units had more than doubled, to 1.1 million, according to the Census Bureau.
In 2018, a paper in the journal “Nature Sustainability” put the hurricane damage from previous years into better context by adjusting for increases in wealth, population, and inflation. This graph shows no meaningful trend in hurricane losses, although a general increase in recent years reflects the growing population in America’s coastal regions.
Number of deaths due to extreme weather in the U.S. from 1995 to 2023
Data for previous years can be found here.
https://www.weather.gov/hazstat/
Hurricane Oscar developed on Saturday near Turks and Caicos, and to the northeast of Cuba, in the extreme southwestern Atlantic Ocean. As of Saturday evening, hurricane-force winds extended just 5 miles (8 km) from the center of the storm. //
Oscar was so small that its winds could not be detected by Earth-observation satellites that estimate wind speeds in tropical cyclones.
Writing in his summary of Oscar's development on Saturday afternoon, National Hurricane Center forecaster Philippe Papin noted that the hurricane was only discovered due to a last-minute flight by Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
"It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar," he wrote in his 5 pm ET advisory. "After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny hurricane. It is worth noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are currently much lower." //
The Air Force aircraft found sustained winds, in a tiny area to be sure, of 85 mph (137 kph). Hence, Hurricane Oscar. //
Weather models struggle with the development of small hurricanes, and this is largely because the micro-physics of the smallest storms occur below the resolution of these models. Additionally, tiny hurricanes organize much more quickly and efficiently.
More than 86 percent of healthcare providers surveyed across the US are experiencing shortages of intravenous fluids after Hurricane Helene's rampage took out a manufacturing plant in western North Carolina that makes 60 percent of the country's supply.
IV fluids are used for everything from intravenous rehydration to drug delivery. The plant also made peritoneal dialysis fluids used to treat kidney failure. //
In one bright spot in the current disruptions, fears that Hurricane Milton would disrupt another IV fluid manufacturing plant in Florida were not realized this week. B. Braun Medical’s manufacturing site in Daytona Beach was not seriously impacted by the storm, the company announced, and production resumed normally Friday. Prior to the storm, with the help of the federal government, B. Braun reportedly moved more than 60 truckloads of IV fluid inventory north of Florida for safekeeping. That inventory will be returned to the Daytona facility, according to reporting by the Associated Press.
This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.
bk
an hour ago
"I like hurricanes - they remind me of circles on Venn diagrams."
Tolly bk
an hour ago
"...and the wheels on the short, yellow bus that used to take me to school."
"Politicians, billionaires and grifters who peddle lies during a time of crisis should be held accountable." The first part of that last part stands: Cooper should definitely be held accountable. The "unprecedented response" he crows about had little to do with him and everything to do with billionaires like Elon Musk, the relief organizations, and the incredible Americans who entered the breach and were the first to respond. Instead, Cooper chose to cozy up to FEMA heads and play at CENTCOM from his cushy office and home in Raleigh, while the people he hindered and maligned were the ones doing the work of saving lives and offering hope.
Please donate what you can, try to find a nonprofit to donate to. Uh, church, local PD. A lot of those are taking donations, sheriff's departments. I know my department is running a bunch of stuff to the western part of the state to help donate, but please do not donate to FEMA.
They are hindering a lot of what people are trying to accomplish out in the western part of the state.
FEMA doesn't understand that these Appalachian people are built differently. I'm very familiar with them. They are not gonna stand by idly and have government officials tell them what to do. FEMA's playing a game of FAFO because free men don't ask for permission. Again, please donate and help these people out. They need us now more than ever.” //
FEMA can try their bureaucratic "We're in charge" moves to try and divert resources and true help, but these mountain folks are not going to go quietly. Posts like this one, from law enforcement no less, help to bring even more noise.
After this first video went viral, Deputy DeStefano received lots of response and requests asking where they should send their donations. So, he did a follow-up video encouraging relief organizations and churches in the western part of the state to drop their contact information in the video comments.
We've seen a lot of people pitching in to help out people affected by Hurricane Helene. That's a great thing because there are still so many people in a lot of need and some of the areas are going to have issues for a while, trying to get everything back on line.
Now, this is just a short list of non-government people and organizations that have stepped in. There are a ton of folks who have been helping out, including so many local folks on the ground--and we thank all of them for their efforts.
Early voting in North Carolina starts in just days, and Appalachian voters in the western, deep-red stronghold of the state are still desperate for help with basic necessities after destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene. A slow-rolled disaster relief response from federal and state government agencies has many wondering if the Democrats in charge are trying to suppress the votes of the predominantly Trump-supporting region. //
The vast majority of the 28 counties and tribal areas included in the emergency declaration are Republican strongholds, and the voters there can make or break a win for former President Donald Trump in the tight swing state he only carried by about 75,000 votes in 2020.
According to an analysis by The Federalist, 604,119 voters in the emergency declaration region cast their ballots for Trump in 2020, while 356,902 chose President Joe Biden. That 247,217-vote difference is more than three times Trump’s margin of victory in 2020.
Trump voters in the affected region also made up 10.9 percent of the total 5,545,848 votes cast in 2020, and the average county voter participation rate is 77.3 percent.
Voter suppression in the disaster zone could be catastrophic for the Trump campaign, and the malaise shown by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Cooper, and the Democrat-run North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) raises significant questions about a life-threatening power play from Democrats and deliberate election interference in order to carry the state for Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg took to "X," the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, to promise the FAA would stop interfering with private humanitarian flights into hurricane-devasted Western North Carolina:
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Oct 4, 2024
·
Replying to @SecretaryPete
Thanks for expediting approval for support flights.
Just wanted to note that Sec Buttigieg is on the ball.
Secretary Pete Buttigieg @SecretaryPete
·
Glad we could address —thanks for engaging.
7:50 PM · Oct 4, 2024 //
The FAA's effort to force civilian aircraft out of the area seems to be documented in this NOTAM dated October 1 that closes the critical part of the disaster area to all aircraft except those "UNDER THE DIRECTION OF North Carolina task force 8." [That is their spelling, not mine.]
They’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars on services for illegal immigrants as Americans struggle after Helene. //
While the emergency response agency is typically proactive, with pre-staged supplies ready for immediate rescue operations, that same support was clearly not available to the Appalachian towns where Hurricane Helene wrought havoc. Instead, the Biden-Harris administration restructured FEMA to provide services for illegal migrants with a new bureaucratic mandate to instill “equity as a foundation of emergency management.” Storm preparedness ranks as a third priority for the disaster relief task force under “lead[ing] whole of community in climate resilience.”
According to the government’s website, FEMA has spent more than $1 billion “to provide humanitarian services to noncitizen migrants following their release from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)” under the “Shelter and Services Program” just within the last two years.
New before-and-after aerial photos paint a grim picture of Hurricane Helene’s devastation in parts of western North Carolina that have been hard to access after the storm swiped away the state’s roads and bridges. //
The storm threw down so much water over the southern Appalachians over a 3-day span that it was a widespread once-in-1,000 year rainfall event for the region, according the National Weather Service.
All of that water barreled down the mountains, liquifying the slopes in some places into devastating mudslides that wiped homes off their foundations. But eventually, it all ended up in rivers.
Hurricanes in the United States end up hundreds of times deadlier than the government calculates, contributing to more American deaths than car accidents or all the nation’s wars, a new study said.
The average storm hitting the U.S. contributes to the early deaths of 7,000 to 11,000 people over a 15-year period, which dwarfs the average of 24 immediate and direct deaths that the government counts in a hurricane’s aftermath, the study in Wednesday’s journal Nature concluded. Study authors said even with Hurricane Helene’s growing triple digit direct death count, many more people will die partly because of that storm in future years.
“Watching what’s happened here makes you think that this is going to be a decade of hardship on tap, not just what’s happening over the next couple of weeks,” said Stanford University climate economist Solomon Hsiang, a study co-author and a former White House science and technology official.
“After each storm there is sort of this surge of additional mortality in a state that’s been impacted that has not been previously documented or associated with hurricanes in any way,” Hsiang said.
Hsiang and University of California Berkeley researcher Rachel Young looked at hurricane deaths in a different way than previous studies, opting for a more long-term public health and economics-oriented analysis of what’s called excess mortality. They looked at states’ death rates after 501 different storms hitting the United States between 1930 and 2015. And what they found is that after each storm there’s a “bump” in death rates.
It’s a statistical signature that they see over and over, Hsiang said. Similar analyses are done for heat waves and other health threats like pollution and disease, he said. They compare to pre-storm times and adjust for other factors that could be causing changes in death rates, he said. Complicating everything is that the same places keep getting hit by multiple storms so there are death bumps upon death bumps.
Just how storms contribute to people’s deaths after the immediate impact is something that needs further study, Hsiang said. But he theorized it includes the health effects of stress, changes in the environment including toxins, people not being able to afford health care and other necessities because of storm costs, infrastructure damage and government changes in spending.
“When someone dies a few years after a hurricane hit them, the cause will be recorded as a heart attack, stroke or respiratory failure,” said Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler, who wasn’t part of the study but has done similar studies on heat and cold deaths. “The doctor can’t possibly know that a hurricane contributed/triggered the illness. You can only see it in a statistical analysis like this.”
Taxpayer-funded data locked behind insurance firm's paywall //
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cannot reveal weather forecasts from a particularly accurate hurricane prediction model to the public that pays for the American government agency – because of a deal with a private insurance risk firm.
The model at issue is called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). In 2023, it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two "best performers," the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).
Hurricane Helene is an unusual example of “conveyor belt” weather conditions, similar to those for Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
Atlanta received a record 11.12 inches (28.24 centimeters) of rain in 48 hours, the most the city has seen in a two-day period since record keeping began in 1878, Georgia's Office of the State Climatologist said on the social platform X. The previous mark of 9.59 inches (24.36 cm) was set in 1886. Some neighborhoods were so badly flooded that only car roofs could be seen poking above the water.
68 °F above average is a lot. For a tropical country it is not credible for temperatures to be that much warmer than average because the average is too high to give enough headroom. So what gives?
Reading the article I found this:
parts of Malawi saw a maximum temperature of 43C (109F), compared with an average of nearly 25C (77F)
As I expected the actual temperature increase was 32 °F, not 68 °F. So what’s up with that headline? Here’s a hint: this is what the headline might say if you set your location to somewhere other than the United States:
Now “nearly 20C” is an odd way of saying “18 °C”, but I guess they really like round numbers, and that’s not the problem. The problem is that somebody – the localization team? an algorithm? – decided that 20 °C was equivalent to 68 °F. And they’re not wrong. And yet they are.
When converting from a temperature in Celsius to one in Fahrenheit you have to multiply by 1.8 (because each degree Celsius covers a range 1.8 times as large as a degree Fahrenheit) and you have to add 32 °F (because the freezing point in Fahrenheit is 32, compared to 0 in Celsius). However if you are converting a temperature difference you just multiply by 1.8. //
This is just another version of the fallacy involved when somebody says that it is “twice as hot” when the temperature goes from 5 °C to 10 °C – note that this is equivalent to going from 278 K to 283 K, or 41 °F to 50 °F, so clearly not “twice as hot” in any meaningful way.
Hurricane forecasters are bewitched, bothered, and bewildered. The Atlantic hurricane season was supposed to be epic. Instead, it's turned into a real dud.
Huge storms wreaking havoc on coastlines from Aruba to Long Island were supposed to line up in the Eastern Atlantic in June and hit us one at a time until late September. The damage was going to be historic and the TV coverage was going to give climate change fanatics plenty of air time to vent that "this is just a foretaste" of what's to come.
But something puzzling occurred on the way to hurricane Armageddon: not much has happened. The Atlantic Ocean has seen five named storms: two tropical storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane this season. //
There's a lesson to be learned from the errors in hurricane forecasting. While we know a lot about the weather and how hurricanes form, what we don't know far exceeds our stored knowledge of how complex, chaotic systems behave to create deadly storms or a bright, sunny day.
It's a lesson that will go unlearned by many who could use that knowledge to realistically predict climate change.
Whatever the reason for the development of the Atlantic Niña this year, there is no climate emergency. //
Daniel Horowitz @RMConservative
·
Ocean is warming...no ocean is cooling!! But either way, it's your fault and we need to take your energy and food to reverse it
newscientist.com
Part of the Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why
8:18 AM · Aug 23, 2024
It turns out the headline is not entirely…accurate. The temperature drop is part of a climate phenomenon known as the Atlantic Nodal Mode. The pattern is like the Pacific Ocean’s El Niño/La Niña cycles but more localized.
The natural climate pattern swings between cold and warm phases every few years. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern equatorial Atlantic have a somewhat surprising seasonal cycle. The warmest waters of the year occur in spring, while the coolest waters occur during the summer. //
Perhaps the most significant aspect of the developing Atlantic Niña is its potential impact on hurricane seasons. As hurricanes strengthen in warm waters and weaken in cool ones, this could be good news for Legal Insurrection fans along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard.