Snow totals topped 25 inches in Northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula through Friday morning. Hurley, Michigan has tallied 31.3 inches of snow.

Gaylord, Michigan set a daily snowfall record on Thanksgiving with 13.1 inches, breaking the previous record of 10.1 inches set in 2023. //

Chicago is expected to see 8-12 inches of snow beginning Friday, which could rival its snowiest two-day total in November since records began in 1884, according to the Forecast Center.

Meanwhile, the US Global Forecasting System continues to get worse.

Melissa made landfall Tuesday in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 185 mph (295 kph), one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, before weakening and moving on to Cuba, but even countries outside the direct path of the massive storm felt its devastating effects.

Way back in the 1870s — when global temperature were supposedly ideal — approximately 50 million people died globally related to extreme weather, particularly related to an extreme El Nino event of 1877-88.

The 1870s also saw the Great Midwest Wildfires of 1871 which killed as many as 2,400 people, the massive 1872 Baltic Sea flood, a 1875 midwestern locust swam of an estimated 12.5 trillion locusts, the 1878 China typhoon that killed as many as 100,000 people, and the U.S. experienced 6 landfalling major hurricanes in the 1870s, compared to just 3 in the 2010s.

It is not widely appreciated, but 2025 (still with two months to go), is currently on track for the lowest global death toll from extreme weather in all of human history. Part of that is good fortune to be sure — for instance, the Northern Hemisphere is well below average in terms of tropical cyclone activity.

By any measure, Melissa is an extraordinary and catastrophic storm.

By strengthening overnight and then maintaining its incredible intensity of 185 mph, Melissa has tied the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most powerful hurricane to strike a landmass in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the United States, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean islands.

Melissa also tied the Labor Day storm, which struck the Florida Keys, as the most intense storm at landfall, measured by central pressure at 892 millibars.

Overall, Melissa is tied for the second strongest hurricane, measured by winds, ever observed in the Atlantic basin, behind only Hurricane Allen and its 190 mph winds in 1980. Only Hurricane Wilma (882 millibars) and Gilbert (888 millibars) have recorded lower pressures at sea. //

Robin-3 Ars Scholae Palatinae
3y
953
Subscriptor

Hurricane Melissa made landfall in southwestern Jamaica, near New Hope, on Tuesday at 1 pm ET with staggeringly powerful sustained winds of 185 mph. [...] The only mitigating factor is that the storm’s strongest winds are blowing across a relatively confined area, about 20 miles across.
Sustained winds of 185 mph (or nearly) in a 20-mile-wide swath.

For comparison, that's the speed you'd see in a mid-level EF-4 ("devastating") tornado... across a 20-mile-wide path. (I imagine the sustained winds will decrease after landfall, but that's a high enough starting point that a significant reduction can still leave them incredibly high.)

The Gilwell Park Weather Rock always has the up to the minute weather conditions and has been placed here for your convenience.

The Official Weather Rock is located on Gilwell field and may be used in the following manner:

First -- Observe the rock for motion

The Rock is not moving- 0-3 MPH ligh breeze
The Rock is moving slightly - 4-10 MPH Mild wind
The Rock is moving in a small arc - 11 to 20 MPH Wind
The Rock is moving in a medium arc - 21 to 40 MPH Wind-Gusts to 50 MPH
The Rock is standing off to one side by 15' - Gale Force Winds
The Rock is standing off to one side by 30-45' - Big Blow Coming
The Rock is standing off to one side by 60'-Hurricane!!
The Rock is standing at 90'-Tornado!! Get to a root cellar! Take Toto!
The Rock is bouncing up and down-Earthquake !!
Second - Touch and Look at the Rock

The Rock is cold, dry and easy to see- Clear, Fair Weather, it's Cold
The Rock is cool, dry and easy to see- Overcast Weather
The Rock is warm, dry and easy to see- Clear, Fair Weather
The Rock has a shadow - It's sunny
The Rock is hot & dry and easy to see - Clear Weather, It's Hot
The Rock is warm and white - Chase the birds away
The Rock is cold, wet and easy to see-It's a cold, wet, day-Dress warm
The Rock is wet on top and dry on the bottom- It's Sprinkling
The Rock is cool,wet, and easy to see-It's rainging. Get your poncho.
The Rock is dripping on all sides-Its a downpour-Too late for poncho

While most people witness only the familiar crack of thunder and flash of lightning from storms on Earth, brilliantly-colorful electric fireworks detonate much higher, in the thin air up to 55 miles overhead, easily seen from the ISS.

These brief spectacles – blue jets, red sprites, violet halos, ultraviolet rings – are collectively known as transient luminous events, or TLEs.

For decades, they eluded systematic study, appearing only in pilots’ anecdotes and the occasional lucky photograph.

The International Space Station (ISS) has changed that by offering an unobstructed seat above the storms, where specialized cameras and sensors capture every fleeting spark.

Strong to severe thunderstorms moved across northern Indiana, southern Michigan and northwest Ohio during the afternoon and evening on March 30th, 2025. Storm surveys were conducted in multiple locations across northern Indiana and far southern Lower Michigan on March 31st and April 1st. Surveys were paused as the area prepared for and was impacted by yet another round of severe storms on April 2nd.

In October, Biden insisted that “nobody can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore because of Hurricane Helene.”

“Scientists report that with warming oceans powering more intense rains, storms like Helene are getting stronger and stronger,” he said. “Today, in North Carolina, I saw the impacts of that fury: massive trees uprooted; homes literally swept off their foundations, swept down rivers; you know, families that are heartbroken.”

Yet is Hurricane Helene really proof that man-made climate change is making life more dangerous in the U.S.?

The Heritage Foundation special report “Keeping an Eye on the Storms: An Analysis of Trends in Hurricanes Over Time” answers definitively in the negative.

In the report, Joe D’Aleo, visiting fellow in Heritage’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment, and Kevin Dayaratna, chief statistician in Heritage’s Center for Data Analysis, break down the data. //

Although hurricanes may not have worsened with climate change, alarmists often claim that tropical cyclones are more destructive now than previously.

Twenty of the 30 most destructive hurricanes since 1900 have hit the mainland U.S. after 2020, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. Besides Hurricane Katrina, which carried out a devastating $200 billion in damage in 2005, all of the top four made landfall in the last decade. //

Yet this data does not reflect the worsening of hurricanes so much as the population growth and economic growth of the U.S. in coastal areas, D’Aleo and Dayaratna conclude.

For instance, only 1.3 million residents called Miami-Dade County, Florida, home in 1971, living in 473,200 housing units. By 2022, the population had grown to more than 2.6 million, and the housing units had more than doubled, to 1.1 million, according to the Census Bureau.

In 2018, a paper in the journal “Nature Sustainability” put the hurricane damage from previous years into better context by adjusting for increases in wealth, population, and inflation. This graph shows no meaningful trend in hurricane losses, although a general increase in recent years reflects the growing population in America’s coastal regions.

Number of deaths due to extreme weather in the U.S. from 1995 to 2023

Data for previous years can be found here.
https://www.weather.gov/hazstat/

Hurricane Oscar developed on Saturday near Turks and Caicos, and to the northeast of Cuba, in the extreme southwestern Atlantic Ocean. As of Saturday evening, hurricane-force winds extended just 5 miles (8 km) from the center of the storm. //

Oscar was so small that its winds could not be detected by Earth-observation satellites that estimate wind speeds in tropical cyclones.

Writing in his summary of Oscar's development on Saturday afternoon, National Hurricane Center forecaster Philippe Papin noted that the hurricane was only discovered due to a last-minute flight by Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

"It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar," he wrote in his 5 pm ET advisory. "After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny hurricane. It is worth noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are currently much lower." //

The Air Force aircraft found sustained winds, in a tiny area to be sure, of 85 mph (137 kph). Hence, Hurricane Oscar. //

Weather models struggle with the development of small hurricanes, and this is largely because the micro-physics of the smallest storms occur below the resolution of these models. Additionally, tiny hurricanes organize much more quickly and efficiently.

More than 86 percent of healthcare providers surveyed across the US are experiencing shortages of intravenous fluids after Hurricane Helene's rampage took out a manufacturing plant in western North Carolina that makes 60 percent of the country's supply.

IV fluids are used for everything from intravenous rehydration to drug delivery. The plant also made peritoneal dialysis fluids used to treat kidney failure. //

In one bright spot in the current disruptions, fears that Hurricane Milton would disrupt another IV fluid manufacturing plant in Florida were not realized this week. B. Braun Medical’s manufacturing site in Daytona Beach was not seriously impacted by the storm, the company announced, and production resumed normally Friday. Prior to the storm, with the help of the federal government, B. Braun reportedly moved more than 60 truckloads of IV fluid inventory north of Florida for safekeeping. That inventory will be returned to the Daytona facility, according to reporting by the Associated Press.

This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.

bk
an hour ago
"I like hurricanes - they remind me of circles on Venn diagrams."

Tolly bk
an hour ago
"...and the wheels on the short, yellow bus that used to take me to school."

"Politicians, billionaires and grifters who peddle lies during a time of crisis should be held accountable." The first part of that last part stands: Cooper should definitely be held accountable. The "unprecedented response" he crows about had little to do with him and everything to do with billionaires like Elon Musk, the relief organizations, and the incredible Americans who entered the breach and were the first to respond. Instead, Cooper chose to cozy up to FEMA heads and play at CENTCOM from his cushy office and home in Raleigh, while the people he hindered and maligned were the ones doing the work of saving lives and offering hope.

Please donate what you can, try to find a nonprofit to donate to. Uh, church, local PD. A lot of those are taking donations, sheriff's departments. I know my department is running a bunch of stuff to the western part of the state to help donate, but please do not donate to FEMA.

They are hindering a lot of what people are trying to accomplish out in the western part of the state.

FEMA doesn't understand that these Appalachian people are built differently. I'm very familiar with them. They are not gonna stand by idly and have government officials tell them what to do. FEMA's playing a game of FAFO because free men don't ask for permission. Again, please donate and help these people out. They need us now more than ever.” //

FEMA can try their bureaucratic "We're in charge" moves to try and divert resources and true help, but these mountain folks are not going to go quietly. Posts like this one, from law enforcement no less, help to bring even more noise.

After this first video went viral, Deputy DeStefano received lots of response and requests asking where they should send their donations. So, he did a follow-up video encouraging relief organizations and churches in the western part of the state to drop their contact information in the video comments.

We've seen a lot of people pitching in to help out people affected by Hurricane Helene. That's a great thing because there are still so many people in a lot of need and some of the areas are going to have issues for a while, trying to get everything back on line.

Now, this is just a short list of non-government people and organizations that have stepped in. There are a ton of folks who have been helping out, including so many local folks on the ground--and we thank all of them for their efforts.

Early voting in North Carolina starts in just days, and Appalachian voters in the western, deep-red stronghold of the state are still desperate for help with basic necessities after destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene. A slow-rolled disaster relief response from federal and state government agencies has many wondering if the Democrats in charge are trying to suppress the votes of the predominantly Trump-supporting region. //

The vast majority of the 28 counties and tribal areas included in the emergency declaration are Republican strongholds, and the voters there can make or break a win for former President Donald Trump in the tight swing state he only carried by about 75,000 votes in 2020.

According to an analysis by The Federalist, 604,119 voters in the emergency declaration region cast their ballots for Trump in 2020, while 356,902 chose President Joe Biden. That 247,217-vote difference is more than three times Trump’s margin of victory in 2020.

Trump voters in the affected region also made up 10.9 percent of the total 5,545,848 votes cast in 2020, and the average county voter participation rate is 77.3 percent.

Voter suppression in the disaster zone could be catastrophic for the Trump campaign, and the malaise shown by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Cooper, and the Democrat-run North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) raises significant questions about a life-threatening power play from Democrats and deliberate election interference in order to carry the state for Vice President Kamala Harris in November.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg took to "X," the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, to promise the FAA would stop interfering with private humanitarian flights into hurricane-devasted Western North Carolina:

Elon Musk @elonmusk
Oct 4, 2024
·
Replying to @SecretaryPete
Thanks for expediting approval for support flights.

Just wanted to note that Sec Buttigieg is on the ball.

Secretary Pete Buttigieg @SecretaryPete
·
Glad we could address —thanks for engaging.
7:50 PM · Oct 4, 2024 //

The FAA's effort to force civilian aircraft out of the area seems to be documented in this NOTAM dated October 1 that closes the critical part of the disaster area to all aircraft except those "UNDER THE DIRECTION OF North Carolina task force 8." [That is their spelling, not mine.]

They’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars on services for illegal immigrants as Americans struggle after Helene. //

While the emergency response agency is typically proactive, with pre-staged supplies ready for immediate rescue operations, that same support was clearly not available to the Appalachian towns where Hurricane Helene wrought havoc. Instead, the Biden-Harris administration restructured FEMA to provide services for illegal migrants with a new bureaucratic mandate to instill “equity as a foundation of emergency management.” Storm preparedness ranks as a third priority for the disaster relief task force under “lead[ing] whole of community in climate resilience.”

According to the government’s website, FEMA has spent more than $1 billion “to provide humanitarian services to noncitizen migrants following their release from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)” under the “Shelter and Services Program” just within the last two years.